A physical model of tropical cyclone central pressure filling at landfall

Abstract

We derive a simple physically based analytic model which describes the pressure filling of a tropical cyclone (TC) over land. Starting from the axisymmetric mass continuity equation in cylindrical coordinates we derive that the half-life decay of the pressure deficit between the environment and TC centre is proportional to the initial radius of maximum surface wind speed. The initial pressure deficit and column-mean radial inflow speed into the core are the other key variables. The assumptions made in deriving the model are validated against idealised numerical simulations of TC decay over land. Decay half-lives predicted from a range of initial TC states are tested against the idealized simulations and are in good agreement. Dry idealised TC decay simulations show that without latent convective heating, the boundary layer decouples from the vortex above leading to a fast decay of surface winds while a mid-level vortex persists.