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Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

Title: Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020
Authors: Bryazka, D
Reitsma, MB
Griswold, MG
Abate, KH
Abbafati, C
Abbasi-Kangevari, M
Abbasi-Kangevari, Z
Abdoli, A
Abdollahi, M
Abdullah, AYM
Abhilash, ES
Abu-Gharbieh, E
Acuna, JM
Addolorato, G
Adebayo, OM
Adekanmbi, V
Adhikari, K
Adhikari, S
Adnani, QES
Afzal, S
Agegnehu, WY
Aggarwal, M
Ahinkorah, BO
Ahmad, AR
Ahmad, S
Ahmad, T
Ahmadi, A
Ahmadi, S
Ahmed, H
Rashid, TA
Akunna, CJ
Al Hamad, H
Alam, MZ
Alem, DT
Alene, KA
Alimohamadi, Y
Alizadeh, A
Allel, K
Alonso, J
Alvand, S
Alvis-Guzman, N
Amare, F
Ameyaw, EK
Amiri, S
Ancuceanu, R
Anderson, JA
Andrei, CL
Andrei, T
Arabloo, J
Arshad, M
Artamonov, AA
Aryan, Z
Asaad, M
Asemahagn, MA
Astell-Burt, T
Athari, SS
Atnafu, DD
Atorkey, P
Atreya, A
Ausloos, F
Ausloos, M
Ayano, G
Ayanore, MA
Ayinde, OO
Ayuso-Mateos, JL
Azadnajafabad, S
Azanaw, MM
Azangou-Khyavy, M
Jafari, AA
Azzam, AY
Badiye, AD
Bagheri, N
Bagherieh, S
Bairwa, M
Bakkannavar, SM
Bakshi, RK
Balchut-Bilchut, AH
Barra, F
Barrow, A
Baskaran, P
Belo, L
Bennett, DA
Bensenor, IM
Bhagavathula, AS
Bhala, N
Bhalla, A
Bhardwaj, N
Bhardwaj, P
Bhaskar, S
Bhattacharyya, K
Bhojaraja, VS
Bintoro, BS
Blokhina, EAE
Bodicha, BBA
Boloor, A
Bosetti, C
Braithwaite, D
Brenner, H
Briko, NI
Brunoni, AR
Butt, ZA
Cao, C
Cao, Y
Cardenas, R
Carvalho, AF
Carvalho, M
Castaldelli-Maia, JM
Castelpietra, G
Castro-de-Araujo, LFS
Cattaruzza, MS
Chakraborty, PA
Charan, J
Chattu, VK
Chaurasia, A
Cherbuin, N
Chu, D-T
Chudal, N
Chung, S-C
Churko, C
Ciobanu, LG
Cirillo, M
Claro, RM
Costanzo, S
Cowden, RG
Criqui, MH
Cruz-Martins, N
Culbreth, GT
Dachew, BA
Dadras, O
Dai, X
Damiani, G
Dandona, L
Dandona, R
Daniel, BD
Danielewicz, A
Gela, JD
Davletov, K
Paiva de Araujo, JA
De Sa-Junior, AR
Debela, SA
Dehghan, A
Demetriades, AK
Molla, MD
Desai, R
Desta, AA
Da Silva, DD
Diaz, D
Digesa, LE
Diress, M
Dodangeh, M
Dongarwar, D
Dorostkar, F
Dsouza, HL
Duko, B
Duncan, BB
Edvardsson, K
Ekholuenetale, M
Elgar, FJ
Elhadi, M
Elmonem, MA
Endries, AY
Eskandarieh, S
Etemadimanesh, A
Fagbamigbe, AF
Fakhradiyev, IR
Farahmand, F
Farinha, CSES
Faro, A
Farzadfar, F
Fatehizadeh, A
Fauk, NK
Feigin, VL
Feldman, R
Feng, X
Fentaw, Z
Ferrero, S
Desideri, LF
Filip, I
Fischer, F
Francis, JM
Franklin, RC
Gaal, PA
Gad, MM
Gallus, S
Galvano, F
Ganesan, B
Garg, T
Gebrehiwot, MGD
Gebremeskel, TG
Gebremichael, MA
Gemechu, TR
Getacher, L
Getachew, ME
Obsa, AG
Getie, A
Ghaderi, A
Ghafourifard, M
Ghajar, A
Ghamari, S-H
Ghandour, LA
Nour, MG
Ghashghaee, A
Ghozy, S
Glozah, FN
Glushkova, EV
Godos, J
Goel, A
Goharinezhad, S
Golechha, M
Goleij, P
Golitaleb, M
Greaves, F
Grivna, M
Grosso, G
Gudayu, TW
Gupta, B
Gupta, R
Gupta, S
Gupta, VB
Gupta, VK
Hafezi-Nejad, N
Haj-Mirzaian, A
Hall, BJ
Halwani, R
Handiso, TB
Hankey, GJ
Hariri, S
Haro, JM
Hasaballah, AI
Hassanian-Moghaddam, H
Hay, SI
Hayat, K
Heidari, G
Heidari, M
Hendrie, D
Herteliu, C
Heyi, DZ
Hezam, K
Hlongwa, MM
Holla, R
Hossain, MM
Hossain, S
Hosseini, SK
Hosseinzadeh, M
Hostiuc, M
Hostiuc, S
Hu, G
Huang, J
Hussain, S
Ibitoye, SE
Ilic, IM
Ilic, MD
Immurana, M
Irham, LM
Islam, MM
Islam, RM
Islam, SMS
Iso, H
Itumalla, R
Iwagami, M
Jabbarinejad, R
Jacob, L
Jakovljevic, M
Jamalpoor, Z
Jamshidi, E
Jayapal, SK
Jayarajah, UU
Jayawardena, R
Jebai, R
Jeddi, SA
Jema, AT
Jha, RP
Jindal, HA
Jonas, JB
Joo, T
Joseph, N
Joukar, F
Jozwiak, JJ
Jurisson, M
Kabir, A
Kabthymer, RH
Kamble, BD
Kandel, H
Kanno, GG
Kapoor, N
Karaye, IM
Karimi, SE
Kassa, BG
Kaur, RJ
Kayode, GA
Keykhaei, M
Khajuria, H
Khalilov, R
Khan, IA
Khan, MAB
Kim, H
Kim, J
Kim, MS
Kimokoti, RW
Kivimaki, M
Klymchuk, V
Knudsen, AKS
Kolahi, A-A
Korshunov, VA
Koyanagi, A
Krishan, K
Krishnamoorthy, Y
Kumar, GA
Kumar, N
Kumar, N
Ben, L
Lallukka, T
Lasrado, S
Lau, J
Lee, S-W
Lee, W-C
Lee, YH
Lim, L-L
Lim, SS
Lobo, SW
Lopukhov, PD
Lorkowski, S
Lozano, R
Lucchetti, G
Madadizadeh, F
Madureira-Carvalho, AM
Mahjoub, S
Mahmoodpoor, A
Mahumud, RA
Makki, A
Malekpour, M-R
Manjunatha, N
Mansouri, B
Mansournia, MA
Martinez-Raga, J
Martinez-Villa, FA
Matzopoulos, R
Maulik, PK
Mayeli, M
McGrath, JJ
Meena, JK
Nasab, EM
Menezes, RG
Mensink, GBM
Mentis, A-FA
Meretoja, A
Merga, BT
Mestrovic, T
Jonasson, JM
Miazgowski, B
De Sa, ACMGN
Miller, TR
Mini, GK
Mirica, A
Mirijello, A
Mirmoeeni, S
Mirrakhimov, EM
Misra, S
Moazen, B
Mobarakabadi, M
Moccia, M
Mohammad, Y
Mohammadi, E
Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A
Mohammed, TA
Moka, N
Mokdad, AH
Momtazmanesh, S
Moradi, Y
Mostafavi, E
Mubarik, S
Mullany, EC
Mulugeta, BT
Murillo-Zamora, E
Murray, CJL
Mwita, JC
Naghavi, M
Naimzada, MD
Nangia, V
Nayak, BP
Negoi, I
Negoi, RI
Nejadghaderi, SA
Nepal, S
Neupane, SPP
Kandel, SN
Nigatu, YT
Nowroozi, A
Nuruzzaman, KM
Nzoputam, CI
Obamiro, KO
Ogbo, FA
Oguntade, AS
Okati-Aliabad, H
Olakunde, BO
Oliveira, GMM
Bali, AO
Omer, E
Ortega-Altamirano, DV
Otoiu, A
Otstavnov, SS
Oumer, B
Mahesh, PA
Padron-Monedero, A
Palladino, R
Pana, A
Panda-Jonas, S
Pandey, A
Pandey, A
Pardhan, S
Parekh, T
Park, E-K
Parry, CDH
Kan, FP
Patel, J
Pati, S
Patton, GC
Paudel, U
Pawar, S
Peden, AE
Petcu, I-R
Phillips, MR
Pinheiro, M
Plotnikov, E
Pradhan, PMS
Prashant, A
Quan, J
Radfar, A
Rafiei, A
Raghav, PR
Rahimi-Movaghar, V
Rahman, A
Rahman, MM
Rahman, M
Rahmani, AM
Rahmani, S
Ranabhat, CL
Ranasinghe, P
Rao, CR
Rasali, DP
Rashidi, M-M
Ratan, ZA
Rawaf, DL
Rawaf, S
Rawal, L
Renzaho, AMN
Rezaei, N
Rezaei, S
Rezaeian, M
Riahi, SM
Romero-Rodriguez, E
Roth, GA
Rwegerera, GM
Saddik, B
Sadeghi, E
Sadeghian, R
Saeed, U
Saeedi, F
Sagar, R
Sahebkar, A
Sahoo, H
Sahraian, MA
Saif-Ur-Rahman, KM
Salahi, S
Salimzadeh, H
Samy, AM
Sanmarchi, F
Santric-Milicevic, MM
Sarikhani, Y
Sathian, B
Saya, GK
Sayyah, M
Schmidt, MI
Schutte, AE
Schwarzinger, M
Schwebel, DC
Seidu, A-A
Kumar, NS
SeyedAlinaghi, S
Seylani, A
Sha, F
Shahin, S
Shahraki-Sanavi, F
Shahrokhi, S
Shaikh, MA
Shaker, E
Shakhmardanov, MZ
Shams-Beyranvand, M
Sheikhbahaei, S
Sheikhi, RA
Shetty, A
Shetty, JK
Shiferaw, DS
Shigematsu, M
Shiri, R
Shirkoohi, R
Shivakumar, KM
Shivarov, V
Shobeiri, P
Shrestha, R
Sidemo, NB
Sigfusdottir, ID
Santos Silva, DA
Da Silva, NT
Singh, JA
Singh, S
Skryabin, VY
Skryabina, AA
Sleet, DA
Solmi, M
Solomon, Y
Song, S
Song, Y
Sorensen, RJD
Soshnikov, S
Soyiri, IN
Stein, DJ
Subba, SH
Szocska, M
Tabares-Seisdedos, R
Tabuchi, T
Taheri, M
Tan, K-K
Tareke, M
Tarkang, EE
Temesgen, G
Temesgen, WA
Temsah, M-H
Thankappan, KR
Thapar, R
Thomas, NK
Tiruneh, C
Todorovic, J
Torrado, M
Touvier, M
Tovani-Palone, MR
Mai, TNT
Trias-Llimos, S
Tripathy, JP
Vakilian, A
Valizadeh, R
Varmaghani, M
Varthya, SB
Vasankari, TJ
Vos, T
Wagaye, B
Waheed, Y
Walde, MT
Wang, C
Wang, Y
Wang, Y-P
Westerman, R
Wickramasinghe, ND
Wubetu, AD
Xu, S
Yamagishi, K
Yang, L
Yesera, GEE
Yigit, A
Yigit, V
Yimaw, AEAE
Yon, DK
Yonemoto, N
Yu, C
Zadey, S
Zahir, M
Zare, I
Zastrozhin, MS
Zastrozhina, A
Zhang, Z-J
Zhong, C
Zmaili, M
Zuniga, YMH
Gakidou, E
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Background The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. Methods For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose–response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15–95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. Findings The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15–39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0–0) and 0·603 (0·400–1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0–0) and 1·75 (0·698–4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0–0·403) to 1·87 (0·500–3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0–0·900) and 6·94 (3·40–8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3–65·4) were aged 15–39 years and 76·9% (73·0–81·3) were male. Interpretation There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Issue Date: 16-Jul-2022
Date of Acceptance: 1-Jul-2022
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/99607
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00847-9
ISSN: 0140-6736
Publisher: Elsevier
Start Page: 185
End Page: 235
Journal / Book Title: The Lancet
Volume: 400
Issue: 10347
Copyright Statement: © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
Keywords: Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Medicine, General & Internal
General & Internal Medicine
ALL-CAUSE
COST-EFFECTIVENESS
REDUCED MORTALITY
CONTROL POLICIES
METAANALYSIS
DRINKING
GUIDELINES
DRINKERS
CANCER
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Medicine, General & Internal
General & Internal Medicine
ALL-CAUSE
COST-EFFECTIVENESS
REDUCED MORTALITY
CONTROL POLICIES
METAANALYSIS
DRINKING
GUIDELINES
DRINKERS
CANCER
Adult
Alcohol Drinking
Child, Preschool
Female
Geography
Global Burden of Disease
Global Health
Humans
Male
Middle Aged
Quality-Adjusted Life Years
Risk Factors
GBD 2020 Alcohol Collaborators
Humans
Risk Factors
Alcohol Drinking
Geography
Quality-Adjusted Life Years
Adult
Middle Aged
Child, Preschool
Female
Male
Global Health
Global Burden of Disease
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Medicine, General & Internal
General & Internal Medicine
ALL-CAUSE
COST-EFFECTIVENESS
REDUCED MORTALITY
CONTROL POLICIES
METAANALYSIS
DRINKING
GUIDELINES
DRINKERS
CANCER
General & Internal Medicine
11 Medical and Health Sciences
Publication Status: Published
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Medicine
School of Public Health



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