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Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020
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Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year a systematic analysis for the Global .pdf | Published version | 5.64 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
Title: | Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020 |
Authors: | Bryazka, D Reitsma, MB Griswold, MG Abate, KH Abbafati, C Abbasi-Kangevari, M Abbasi-Kangevari, Z Abdoli, A Abdollahi, M Abdullah, AYM Abhilash, ES Abu-Gharbieh, E Acuna, JM Addolorato, G Adebayo, OM Adekanmbi, V Adhikari, K Adhikari, S Adnani, QES Afzal, S Agegnehu, WY Aggarwal, M Ahinkorah, BO Ahmad, AR Ahmad, S Ahmad, T Ahmadi, A Ahmadi, S Ahmed, H Rashid, TA Akunna, CJ Al Hamad, H Alam, MZ Alem, DT Alene, KA Alimohamadi, Y Alizadeh, A Allel, K Alonso, J Alvand, S Alvis-Guzman, N Amare, F Ameyaw, EK Amiri, S Ancuceanu, R Anderson, JA Andrei, CL Andrei, T Arabloo, J Arshad, M Artamonov, AA Aryan, Z Asaad, M Asemahagn, MA Astell-Burt, T Athari, SS Atnafu, DD Atorkey, P Atreya, A Ausloos, F Ausloos, M Ayano, G Ayanore, MA Ayinde, OO Ayuso-Mateos, JL Azadnajafabad, S Azanaw, MM Azangou-Khyavy, M Jafari, AA Azzam, AY Badiye, AD Bagheri, N Bagherieh, S Bairwa, M Bakkannavar, SM Bakshi, RK Balchut-Bilchut, AH Barra, F Barrow, A Baskaran, P Belo, L Bennett, DA Bensenor, IM Bhagavathula, AS Bhala, N Bhalla, A Bhardwaj, N Bhardwaj, P Bhaskar, S Bhattacharyya, K Bhojaraja, VS Bintoro, BS Blokhina, EAE Bodicha, BBA Boloor, A Bosetti, C Braithwaite, D Brenner, H Briko, NI Brunoni, AR Butt, ZA Cao, C Cao, Y Cardenas, R Carvalho, AF Carvalho, M Castaldelli-Maia, JM Castelpietra, G Castro-de-Araujo, LFS Cattaruzza, MS Chakraborty, PA Charan, J Chattu, VK Chaurasia, A Cherbuin, N Chu, D-T Chudal, N Chung, S-C Churko, C Ciobanu, LG Cirillo, M Claro, RM Costanzo, S Cowden, RG Criqui, MH Cruz-Martins, N Culbreth, GT Dachew, BA Dadras, O Dai, X Damiani, G Dandona, L Dandona, R Daniel, BD Danielewicz, A Gela, JD Davletov, K Paiva de Araujo, JA De Sa-Junior, AR Debela, SA Dehghan, A Demetriades, AK Molla, MD Desai, R Desta, AA Da Silva, DD Diaz, D Digesa, LE Diress, M Dodangeh, M Dongarwar, D Dorostkar, F Dsouza, HL Duko, B Duncan, BB Edvardsson, K Ekholuenetale, M Elgar, FJ Elhadi, M Elmonem, MA Endries, AY Eskandarieh, S Etemadimanesh, A Fagbamigbe, AF Fakhradiyev, IR Farahmand, F Farinha, CSES Faro, A Farzadfar, F Fatehizadeh, A Fauk, NK Feigin, VL Feldman, R Feng, X Fentaw, Z Ferrero, S Desideri, LF Filip, I Fischer, F Francis, JM Franklin, RC Gaal, PA Gad, MM Gallus, S Galvano, F Ganesan, B Garg, T Gebrehiwot, MGD Gebremeskel, TG Gebremichael, MA Gemechu, TR Getacher, L Getachew, ME Obsa, AG Getie, A Ghaderi, A Ghafourifard, M Ghajar, A Ghamari, S-H Ghandour, LA Nour, MG Ghashghaee, A Ghozy, S Glozah, FN Glushkova, EV Godos, J Goel, A Goharinezhad, S Golechha, M Goleij, P Golitaleb, M Greaves, F Grivna, M Grosso, G Gudayu, TW Gupta, B Gupta, R Gupta, S Gupta, VB Gupta, VK Hafezi-Nejad, N Haj-Mirzaian, A Hall, BJ Halwani, R Handiso, TB Hankey, GJ Hariri, S Haro, JM Hasaballah, AI Hassanian-Moghaddam, H Hay, SI Hayat, K Heidari, G Heidari, M Hendrie, D Herteliu, C Heyi, DZ Hezam, K Hlongwa, MM Holla, R Hossain, MM Hossain, S Hosseini, SK Hosseinzadeh, M Hostiuc, M Hostiuc, S Hu, G Huang, J Hussain, S Ibitoye, SE Ilic, IM Ilic, MD Immurana, M Irham, LM Islam, MM Islam, RM Islam, SMS Iso, H Itumalla, R Iwagami, M Jabbarinejad, R Jacob, L Jakovljevic, M Jamalpoor, Z Jamshidi, E Jayapal, SK Jayarajah, UU Jayawardena, R Jebai, R Jeddi, SA Jema, AT Jha, RP Jindal, HA Jonas, JB Joo, T Joseph, N Joukar, F Jozwiak, JJ Jurisson, M Kabir, A Kabthymer, RH Kamble, BD Kandel, H Kanno, GG Kapoor, N Karaye, IM Karimi, SE Kassa, BG Kaur, RJ Kayode, GA Keykhaei, M Khajuria, H Khalilov, R Khan, IA Khan, MAB Kim, H Kim, J Kim, MS Kimokoti, RW Kivimaki, M Klymchuk, V Knudsen, AKS Kolahi, A-A Korshunov, VA Koyanagi, A Krishan, K Krishnamoorthy, Y Kumar, GA Kumar, N Kumar, N Ben, L Lallukka, T Lasrado, S Lau, J Lee, S-W Lee, W-C Lee, YH Lim, L-L Lim, SS Lobo, SW Lopukhov, PD Lorkowski, S Lozano, R Lucchetti, G Madadizadeh, F Madureira-Carvalho, AM Mahjoub, S Mahmoodpoor, A Mahumud, RA Makki, A Malekpour, M-R Manjunatha, N Mansouri, B Mansournia, MA Martinez-Raga, J Martinez-Villa, FA Matzopoulos, R Maulik, PK Mayeli, M McGrath, JJ Meena, JK Nasab, EM Menezes, RG Mensink, GBM Mentis, A-FA Meretoja, A Merga, BT Mestrovic, T Jonasson, JM Miazgowski, B De Sa, ACMGN Miller, TR Mini, GK Mirica, A Mirijello, A Mirmoeeni, S Mirrakhimov, EM Misra, S Moazen, B Mobarakabadi, M Moccia, M Mohammad, Y Mohammadi, E Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A Mohammed, TA Moka, N Mokdad, AH Momtazmanesh, S Moradi, Y Mostafavi, E Mubarik, S Mullany, EC Mulugeta, BT Murillo-Zamora, E Murray, CJL Mwita, JC Naghavi, M Naimzada, MD Nangia, V Nayak, BP Negoi, I Negoi, RI Nejadghaderi, SA Nepal, S Neupane, SPP Kandel, SN Nigatu, YT Nowroozi, A Nuruzzaman, KM Nzoputam, CI Obamiro, KO Ogbo, FA Oguntade, AS Okati-Aliabad, H Olakunde, BO Oliveira, GMM Bali, AO Omer, E Ortega-Altamirano, DV Otoiu, A Otstavnov, SS Oumer, B Mahesh, PA Padron-Monedero, A Palladino, R Pana, A Panda-Jonas, S Pandey, A Pandey, A Pardhan, S Parekh, T Park, E-K Parry, CDH Kan, FP Patel, J Pati, S Patton, GC Paudel, U Pawar, S Peden, AE Petcu, I-R Phillips, MR Pinheiro, M Plotnikov, E Pradhan, PMS Prashant, A Quan, J Radfar, A Rafiei, A Raghav, PR Rahimi-Movaghar, V Rahman, A Rahman, MM Rahman, M Rahmani, AM Rahmani, S Ranabhat, CL Ranasinghe, P Rao, CR Rasali, DP Rashidi, M-M Ratan, ZA Rawaf, DL Rawaf, S Rawal, L Renzaho, AMN Rezaei, N Rezaei, S Rezaeian, M Riahi, SM Romero-Rodriguez, E Roth, GA Rwegerera, GM Saddik, B Sadeghi, E Sadeghian, R Saeed, U Saeedi, F Sagar, R Sahebkar, A Sahoo, H Sahraian, MA Saif-Ur-Rahman, KM Salahi, S Salimzadeh, H Samy, AM Sanmarchi, F Santric-Milicevic, MM Sarikhani, Y Sathian, B Saya, GK Sayyah, M Schmidt, MI Schutte, AE Schwarzinger, M Schwebel, DC Seidu, A-A Kumar, NS SeyedAlinaghi, S Seylani, A Sha, F Shahin, S Shahraki-Sanavi, F Shahrokhi, S Shaikh, MA Shaker, E Shakhmardanov, MZ Shams-Beyranvand, M Sheikhbahaei, S Sheikhi, RA Shetty, A Shetty, JK Shiferaw, DS Shigematsu, M Shiri, R Shirkoohi, R Shivakumar, KM Shivarov, V Shobeiri, P Shrestha, R Sidemo, NB Sigfusdottir, ID Santos Silva, DA Da Silva, NT Singh, JA Singh, S Skryabin, VY Skryabina, AA Sleet, DA Solmi, M Solomon, Y Song, S Song, Y Sorensen, RJD Soshnikov, S Soyiri, IN Stein, DJ Subba, SH Szocska, M Tabares-Seisdedos, R Tabuchi, T Taheri, M Tan, K-K Tareke, M Tarkang, EE Temesgen, G Temesgen, WA Temsah, M-H Thankappan, KR Thapar, R Thomas, NK Tiruneh, C Todorovic, J Torrado, M Touvier, M Tovani-Palone, MR Mai, TNT Trias-Llimos, S Tripathy, JP Vakilian, A Valizadeh, R Varmaghani, M Varthya, SB Vasankari, TJ Vos, T Wagaye, B Waheed, Y Walde, MT Wang, C Wang, Y Wang, Y-P Westerman, R Wickramasinghe, ND Wubetu, AD Xu, S Yamagishi, K Yang, L Yesera, GEE Yigit, A Yigit, V Yimaw, AEAE Yon, DK Yonemoto, N Yu, C Zadey, S Zahir, M Zare, I Zastrozhin, MS Zastrozhina, A Zhang, Z-J Zhong, C Zmaili, M Zuniga, YMH Gakidou, E |
Item Type: | Journal Article |
Abstract: | Background The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. Methods For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose–response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15–95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. Findings The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15–39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0–0) and 0·603 (0·400–1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0–0) and 1·75 (0·698–4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0–0·403) to 1·87 (0·500–3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0–0·900) and 6·94 (3·40–8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3–65·4) were aged 15–39 years and 76·9% (73·0–81·3) were male. Interpretation There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. |
Issue Date: | 16-Jul-2022 |
Date of Acceptance: | 1-Jul-2022 |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/99607 |
DOI: | 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00847-9 |
ISSN: | 0140-6736 |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Start Page: | 185 |
End Page: | 235 |
Journal / Book Title: | The Lancet |
Volume: | 400 |
Issue: | 10347 |
Copyright Statement: | © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. |
Keywords: | Science & Technology Life Sciences & Biomedicine Medicine, General & Internal General & Internal Medicine ALL-CAUSE COST-EFFECTIVENESS REDUCED MORTALITY CONTROL POLICIES METAANALYSIS DRINKING GUIDELINES DRINKERS CANCER Science & Technology Life Sciences & Biomedicine Medicine, General & Internal General & Internal Medicine ALL-CAUSE COST-EFFECTIVENESS REDUCED MORTALITY CONTROL POLICIES METAANALYSIS DRINKING GUIDELINES DRINKERS CANCER Adult Alcohol Drinking Child, Preschool Female Geography Global Burden of Disease Global Health Humans Male Middle Aged Quality-Adjusted Life Years Risk Factors GBD 2020 Alcohol Collaborators Humans Risk Factors Alcohol Drinking Geography Quality-Adjusted Life Years Adult Middle Aged Child, Preschool Female Male Global Health Global Burden of Disease Science & Technology Life Sciences & Biomedicine Medicine, General & Internal General & Internal Medicine ALL-CAUSE COST-EFFECTIVENESS REDUCED MORTALITY CONTROL POLICIES METAANALYSIS DRINKING GUIDELINES DRINKERS CANCER General & Internal Medicine 11 Medical and Health Sciences |
Publication Status: | Published |
Appears in Collections: | Faculty of Medicine School of Public Health |
This item is licensed under a Creative Commons License