Does death from Covid-19 arise from a multi-step process?
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Supporting information
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The Covid-19 death rate increases exponentially with age, and the main risk factors are having underlying conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, severe chronic respiratory disease and cancer. These characteristics are consistent with the multi-step model of disease. We applied this model to Covid-19 case fatality rates (CFRs) from China, South Korea, Italy, Spain and Japan. In all countries we found that a plot of log(CFR) against log(age) was approximately linear with a slope of about 5. We also conducted similar analyses for selected other respiratory diseases. SARS showed a similar log–log age-pattern to that of Covid-19, albeit with a lower slope, whereas seasonal and pandemic influenza showed quite different age-patterns. Thus, death from Covid-19 and SARS appears to follow a distinct age-pattern, consistent with a multi-step model of disease that in the case of Covid-19 is probably defined by comorbidities and age producing immune-related susceptibility.
Date Issued
2021-01-01
Date Acceptance
2020-12-15
Citation
European Journal of Epidemiology, 2021, 36, pp.1-9
ISSN
0393-2990
Publisher
Springer
Start Page
1
End Page
9
Journal / Book Title
European Journal of Epidemiology
Volume
36
Copyright Statement
© Springer Nature B.V. 2021. The final publication is available at Springer via https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00711-7
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000608645600001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Epidemiology
Infectious diseases
Mortality
Covid-19
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-01-18