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Vegetation plays an important role in mediating future water resources

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Title: Vegetation plays an important role in mediating future water resources
Authors: Ukkola, AM
Keenan, TF
Kelley, DI
Prentice, IC
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Future environmental change is expected to modify the global hydrological cycle, with consequences for the regional distribution of freshwater supplies. Regional precipitation projections, however, differ largely between models, making future water resource projections highly uncertain. Using two representative concentration pathways and nine climate models, we estimate 21st century water resources across Australia, employing both a process-based dynamic vegetation model and a simple hydrological framework commonly used in water resource studies to separate the effects of climate and vegetation on water resources. We show surprisingly robust, pathway-independent regional patterns of change in water resources despite large uncertainties in precipitation projections. Increasing plant water use efficiency (due to the changing atmospheric CO2) and reduced green vegetation cover (due to the changing climate) relieve pressure on water resources for the highly populated, humid coastal regions of eastern Australia. By contrast, in semi-arid regions across Australia, runoff declines are amplified by CO2-induced greening, which leads to increased vegetation water use. These findings highlight the importance of including vegetation dynamics in future water resource projections.
Issue Date: 14-Sep-2016
Date of Acceptance: 10-Aug-2016
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/42789
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094022
ISSN: 1748-9326
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Journal / Book Title: Environmental Research Letters
Volume: 11
Issue: 9
Copyright Statement: © 2016 IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/). Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
Keywords: Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Physical Sciences
Environmental Sciences
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
CO2 effect
water resources
climate change
vegetation dynamics
climate projections
LAND-SURFACE PROCESSES
HYDROLOGICAL EVALUATION
EL-NINO
MODEL
RUNOFF
PLANT
FREQUENCY
DYNAMICS
EVENTS
OCEAN
MD Multidisciplinary
Publication Status: Published
Article Number: ARTN 094022
Appears in Collections:Department of Life Sciences
Faculty of Natural Sciences