Responses to lower-tropospheric stability dominate intermodel differences in the historical pattern effect
Author(s)
Kawaguchi, Koh
Ceppi, Paulo
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The sea surface temperature (SST) pattern modulates the Earth's radiative feedbacks at decadal timescales. However, decadal feedback variations over the historical period depend on the choice of climate model, even when forced with the same SST data set. We investigate these differences through analyzing amip-piForcing output, focusing on low cloud feedback. Time-variation in low cloud feedback results primarily from the SST pattern, mediated by changes in near-global lower tropospheric stability (LTS). We investigate the meteorological factors contributing to low cloud feedback variation through the cloud controlling factor analysis method, diagnosing cloud radiative sensitivities from 16 CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, and an observational constraint from MODIS. We find the radiative sensitivity of models to LTS in the stratocumulus regions dominates the magnitude of cloud feedback time variation due to the pattern effect. Additionally, models underestimate low cloud radiative sensitivity to changes in LTS and SST and thus the time-variation in feedback.
Date Issued
2025-09-16
Date Acceptance
2025-08-17
Citation
Geophysical Research Letters, 2025, 52 (17)
ISSN
0094-8276
Publisher
Wiley
Journal / Book Title
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume
52
Issue
17
Copyright Statement
© 2025. The Author(s). This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Subjects
CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
DEPENDENCE
Geology
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
GLOBAL CLOUD
LOW CLOUD COVER
MODEL
Physical Sciences
RADIATIVE FEEDBACKS
Science & Technology
SURFACE-TEMPERATURE-CHANGE
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
e2025GL117015
Date Publish Online
2025-08-28