From least cost to least risk: producing climate change mitigation plans that are resilient to multiple risks

Abstract

Our plans to tackle climate change could be thrown off-track by shocks such as the coronavirus pandemic, the energy supply crisis driven by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, financial crises and other such disruptions. We should therefore identify plans which are as resilient as possible to future risks, by systematically understanding the range of risks to which mitigation plans are vulnerable and how best to reduce such vulnerabilities. Here, we use electricity system decarbonization as a focus area, to highlight the different types of technological solutions, the different risks that may be associated with them, and the approaches, situated in a decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) paradigm, that would allow the identification and enhanced resilience of mitigation pathways.