More tropical cyclones are striking coasts with major intensities at landfall
File(s)MM_MainText.docx (600.12 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Wang, Shuai
Toumi, Ralf
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
In this study we show that the number of annual global tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls with major landfall intensity (LI≥50 m s-1) has nearly doubled from 1982 to 2020. The lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) of global major landfalling TCs has been increasing by 0.8 m s-1 per decade (p<0.05), but this significance of intensity change disappears at landfall (0.3 m s-1 per decade, p=0.69). The lack of a significant LI trend is caused by the much larger variance of LI than that of LMI in all basins and explains why a significant count change of TCs with major intensity at landfall has only now emerged. Basin-wide TC trends of intensity and spatial distribution have been reported, but this long-term major TC landfall count change may be the most socio-economic significant.
Date Acceptance
2022-03-17
Citation
Scientific Reports, 12
ISSN
2045-2322
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group
Journal / Book Title
Scientific Reports
Volume
12
Copyright Statement
This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or
format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the
Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. Te images or other third party material in this
article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the
material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not
permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from
the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
© The Author(s) 2022
License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or
format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the
Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. Te images or other third party material in this
article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the
material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not
permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from
the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
© The Author(s) 2022
License URL
Sponsor
Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
Identifier
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-09287-6
Grant Number
NE/V017756/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
UNITED-STATES
INTENSIFICATION
MIGRATION
TREND
DECAY
Cyclonic Storms
Cyclonic Storms
Publication Status
Published