Inferring extinctions II: A practical, iterative model based on records and surveys
File(s)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Thompson, CJ
Koshkina, V
Burgman, MA
Butchart, SHM
Stone, L
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Extinctions are difficult to observe. Estimating the probability that a taxon has gone extinct using data from the field aids prioritisation of conservation interventions and environmental monitoring. There have been recent advances in approaches to estimating this probability from records. However, complete assessment requires consideration of the type, timing and certainty of records, the timing, scope and severity of threats, and the timing, extent and reliability of surveys. Until recently, no single method could integrate these different sources and qualities of data into a single measure. Here we describe a new, accessible method for estimating the probability that a taxon is extinct based on different kinds of both record and survey data, and accounting for data quality. The model takes into account uncertainties in input parameter estimates and provides bounds on estimates of the extinction probability. We illustrate application of the model using information for the Alaotra Grebe Tachybaptus rufolavatus. Application of this approach should facilitate more efficient allocation of conservation resources by enabling scenario analyses that inform investments in searches and management interventions for potentially extinct taxa. It should also provide more reliable estimates of recent extinction rates.
Date Issued
2017-09-01
Date Acceptance
2017-07-24
Citation
BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION, 2017, 214, pp.328-335
ISSN
0006-3207
Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
Start Page
328
End Page
335
Journal / Book Title
BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION
Volume
214
Copyright Statement
© 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000412788100036&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Biodiversity Conservation
Ecology
Environmental Sciences
Biodiversity & Conservation
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Extinct
Probability of extinction
Model
Searches
Threatened species
Conservation
IUCN red list
SIGHTING RECORDS
ACCURACY
05 Environmental Sciences
06 Biological Sciences
07 Agricultural And Veterinary Sciences
Publication Status
Published