The "Cubic Law of the Stock Returns" in emerging markets
File(s)GuIbragimovFinalAccepted.pdf (2.12 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Gu, Zhiye
Ibragimov, Rustam
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Excess volatility in main emerging and developed stock markets is carefully analysed in this study. Tail distribution of returns of both stock market index and individual stocks is evaluated and compared with the theoretical distribution found by Gabaix et al. (2003, 2006). For stock market index, recursive and rolling estimation are used. In recursive estimation, we find that all the developed markets obey “the Cubic Law of the Stock Returns”, while most of the emerging countries exhibit heavier tail with a tail index lower than 3 at 95% significance level. In rolling estimation, the tail index in the developed markets does not stabilise around 3, and after 2008 financial crisis, all the developed markets and most emerging ones suffer a drop in the tail index. For individual stocks, the tail distributions of stock returns, trading volume, and the number of trades in each emerging country behave quite differently from the theoretical model by Gabaix et al. (2006), especially the stock returns.
Date Issued
2018-03-01
Date Acceptance
2017-11-19
Citation
JOURNAL OF EMPIRICAL FINANCE, 2018, 46, pp.182-190
ISSN
0927-5398
Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Start Page
182
End Page
190
Journal / Book Title
JOURNAL OF EMPIRICAL FINANCE
Volume
46
Copyright Statement
© 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000429390000011&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Social Sciences
Business, Finance
Economics
Business & Economics
Tail index
Emerging stock markets
Stock market volatility
FINANCIAL-MARKETS
TAIL BEHAVIOR
POWER LAWS
ZIPFS LAW
FLUCTUATIONS
VOLATILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
PRICES
PERSPECTIVE
REGIMES
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2017-12-19