Emergency presentation of esophagogastric cancer predictors and long-term prognosis
File(s)Emergency OG cancer_manuscript_changes merged.docx (43.06 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Objective: To identify patient factors that are associated with emergency presentation of esophageal and gastric cancer, and further to evaluate long-term prognosis in this cohort.
Background: The incidence of emergency presentation is variable, with the prognosis of patients stabilized and discharged to return for elective surgery unknown.
Methods: The primary admission of patients with esophageal or gastric cancer within the Hospital Episode Statistics database (1997–2012) was used to classify as emergency or elective diagnosis. Multivariate regression analyses were used to identify patient factors associated with emergency diagnosis and prognosis.
Results: A total of 35,807 (29.4%) and 45,866 (39.6%) patients with esophageal and gastric cancer presented as an emergency over the study period. Age ≥70, female sex, non-white ethnicity, Charlson comorbidity index score ≥3 and more deprived Townsend index were independent predictors of emergency cancer diagnosis. Emergency diagnosis was an independent predictor of increased 5-year mortality for all patients with esophageal cancer [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.63, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.61–1.65] and gastric cancer (HR = 1.20, 95% CI 1.16–1.23). Specifically patients receiving surgery on an elective follow-up admission with an initial emergency diagnosis had a poorer prognosis (esophageal cancer: HR = 1.35, 95% CI 1.27–1.44, gastric cancer: HR = 1.13. 95% CI 1.04–1.22), with a significant increase in liver recurrence (esophageal cancer: 7.1% vs 4.9%; P < 0.001, gastric cancer: 7.0% vs 4.8%; P < 0.001) compared to patients referred electively.
Conclusions: Emergency presentation of esophageal and gastric cancer is associated with a poor prognosis, due to the increased incidence of metastatic disease at diagnosis and a higher recurrence rate after surgery.
Background: The incidence of emergency presentation is variable, with the prognosis of patients stabilized and discharged to return for elective surgery unknown.
Methods: The primary admission of patients with esophageal or gastric cancer within the Hospital Episode Statistics database (1997–2012) was used to classify as emergency or elective diagnosis. Multivariate regression analyses were used to identify patient factors associated with emergency diagnosis and prognosis.
Results: A total of 35,807 (29.4%) and 45,866 (39.6%) patients with esophageal and gastric cancer presented as an emergency over the study period. Age ≥70, female sex, non-white ethnicity, Charlson comorbidity index score ≥3 and more deprived Townsend index were independent predictors of emergency cancer diagnosis. Emergency diagnosis was an independent predictor of increased 5-year mortality for all patients with esophageal cancer [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.63, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.61–1.65] and gastric cancer (HR = 1.20, 95% CI 1.16–1.23). Specifically patients receiving surgery on an elective follow-up admission with an initial emergency diagnosis had a poorer prognosis (esophageal cancer: HR = 1.35, 95% CI 1.27–1.44, gastric cancer: HR = 1.13. 95% CI 1.04–1.22), with a significant increase in liver recurrence (esophageal cancer: 7.1% vs 4.9%; P < 0.001, gastric cancer: 7.0% vs 4.8%; P < 0.001) compared to patients referred electively.
Conclusions: Emergency presentation of esophageal and gastric cancer is associated with a poor prognosis, due to the increased incidence of metastatic disease at diagnosis and a higher recurrence rate after surgery.
Date Issued
2018-04
Date Acceptance
2018-04-01
Citation
Annals of Surgery, 2018, 267 (4), pp.711-715
ISSN
0003-4932
Publisher
Lippincott, Williams & Wilkins
Start Page
711
End Page
715
Journal / Book Title
Annals of Surgery
Volume
267
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© 2018 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc. This is a non-final version of an article published in final form in Annals of Surgery, April 2018, Volume 267, Issue 4, p711–715, https://dx.doi.org/10.1097/SLA.0000000000002224
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000435846900037&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Surgery
(o)esophageal neoplasm
emergency
gastric neoplasm
PERFORATED GASTRIC-CARCINOMA
OUTCOMES
ADENOCARCINOMA
GASTRECTOMY
ESOPHAGEAL
MORTALITY
SURVIVAL
SURGERY
ENGLAND
Publication Status
Published