Twenty-first century sea-level rise could exceed IPCC projections for strong-warming futures
File(s)
Author(s)
Siegert, Martin
Alley, Richard B
Rignot, Eric
Englander, John
Corell, Robert
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
While twentieth century sea-level rise was dominated by thermal expansion of ocean water, mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets is now a larger annual contributor. There is uncertainty on how ice sheets will respond to further warming, however, reducing confidence in twenty-first century sea-level projections. In 2019, to address the uncertainty, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that sea-level rise from the 1950s levels would likely be within 0.61–1.10 m if warming exceeds 4°C by 2100. The IPCC acknowledged greater sea-level increases were possible through mechanisms not fully incorporated in models used in the assessment. In this perspective, we discuss challenges faced in projecting sea-level change and discuss why the IPCC's sea-level range for 2100 under strong warming is focused at the low end of possible outcomes. We argue outcomes above this range are far more probable than below it and discuss how decision makers may benefit from reframing IPCC's terminology to avoid unintentionally masking worst-case scenarios.
Date Issued
2020-12-18
Date Acceptance
2020-12-01
Citation
One Earth, 2020, 3 (6), pp.691-703
ISSN
2590-3322
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Start Page
691
End Page
703
Journal / Book Title
One Earth
Volume
3
Issue
6
Copyright Statement
© 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Sponsor
Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
British Council (UK)
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590332220305923?via%3Dihub
Grant Number
NE/K004956/2
GEOG.RE2356
ICECAP-2
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-12-18