Near-term carbon dioxide removal deployment can minimize disruptive pace of decarbonization and economic risks towards United States’ net-zero goal
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Deep decarbonization is essential for achieving the Paris Agreement targets, and Carbon
dioxide removal is required to address residual emissions and achieve net-zero goals.
However, the implications of delaying the deployment of removal technologies remain unclear.
Here we quantify the implications of diverse suites of Carbon dioxide removal and their timing
on achieving net zero by 2050 in the United States. We demonstrate that delaying novel
Carbon dioxide removal until mid-century forces accelerated decarbonization of energy intensive sectors, reducing residual emissions at net zero year, by at least 12% lower
compared to when Carbon Dioxide Removal is deployed in the near term. This imposes high
cost of transition, requiring carbon prices 59-79% higher than with near-term Carbon dioxide
removal deployment. Delaying novel Carbon dioxide removal also perpetuates high risk of
premature fossil retirement in electricity sector by 2050 and corresponding financial loss
between 128-220 billion USD compared to gradual scale up of Carbon dioxide removal in the
near term. We see that a balanced near-term co-deployment of novel Carbon dioxide removal
mitigate against risks associated with relying on a single approach, addressing sustainability
concerns and potential scalability issues.
dioxide removal is required to address residual emissions and achieve net-zero goals.
However, the implications of delaying the deployment of removal technologies remain unclear.
Here we quantify the implications of diverse suites of Carbon dioxide removal and their timing
on achieving net zero by 2050 in the United States. We demonstrate that delaying novel
Carbon dioxide removal until mid-century forces accelerated decarbonization of energy intensive sectors, reducing residual emissions at net zero year, by at least 12% lower
compared to when Carbon Dioxide Removal is deployed in the near term. This imposes high
cost of transition, requiring carbon prices 59-79% higher than with near-term Carbon dioxide
removal deployment. Delaying novel Carbon dioxide removal also perpetuates high risk of
premature fossil retirement in electricity sector by 2050 and corresponding financial loss
between 128-220 billion USD compared to gradual scale up of Carbon dioxide removal in the
near term. We see that a balanced near-term co-deployment of novel Carbon dioxide removal
mitigate against risks associated with relying on a single approach, addressing sustainability
concerns and potential scalability issues.
Date Issued
2024-12-19
Date Acceptance
2024-11-18
Citation
Communications Earth & Environment, 2024, 5
ISSN
2662-4435
Publisher
Nature Portfolio
Journal / Book Title
Communications Earth & Environment
Volume
5
Copyright Statement
Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons
Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing,
adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long
as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source,
provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes
were made. The images or other third party material in this article are
included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated
otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the
article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted
by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to
obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this
licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
© The Author(s) 2024
Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing,
adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long
as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source,
provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes
were made. The images or other third party material in this article are
included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated
otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the
article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted
by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to
obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this
licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
© The Author(s) 2024
License URL
Identifier
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01916-4
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
770
Date Publish Online
2024-12-19