Online parameter estimation for the McKean–Vlasov stochastic differential equation
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Published version
Author(s)
Sharrock, Louis
Kantas, Nikolas
Parpas, Panos
Pavliotis, Grigorios A
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We analyse the problem of online parameter estimation for a stochastic McKean–Vlasov equation, and the associated system of weakly interacting particles. We propose an online estimator for the parameters of the McKean–Vlasov SDE, or the interacting particle system, which is based on a continuous-time stochastic gradient ascent scheme with respect to the asymptotic log-likelihood of the interacting particle system. We characterise the asymptotic behaviour of this estimator in the limit as
�
→
∞
, and also in the joint limit as
�
→
∞
and
�
→
∞
. In these two cases, we obtain almost sure or
�
1
convergence to the stationary points of a limiting contrast function, under suitable conditions which guarantee ergodicity and uniform-in-time propagation of chaos. We also establish, under the additional condition of global strong concavity,
�
2
convergence to the unique maximiser of the asymptotic log-likelihood of the McKean–Vlasov SDE, with an asymptotic convergence rate which depends on the learning rate, the number of observations, and the dimension of the non-linear process. Our theoretical results are supported by two numerical examples, a linear mean field model and a stochastic opinion dynamics model.
�
→
∞
, and also in the joint limit as
�
→
∞
and
�
→
∞
. In these two cases, we obtain almost sure or
�
1
convergence to the stationary points of a limiting contrast function, under suitable conditions which guarantee ergodicity and uniform-in-time propagation of chaos. We also establish, under the additional condition of global strong concavity,
�
2
convergence to the unique maximiser of the asymptotic log-likelihood of the McKean–Vlasov SDE, with an asymptotic convergence rate which depends on the learning rate, the number of observations, and the dimension of the non-linear process. Our theoretical results are supported by two numerical examples, a linear mean field model and a stochastic opinion dynamics model.
Date Issued
2023-08
Date Acceptance
2023-05-03
Citation
Stochastic Processes and their Applications, 2023, 162, pp.481-546
ISSN
0304-4149
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
481
End Page
546
Journal / Book Title
Stochastic Processes and their Applications
Volume
162
Copyright Statement
© 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
License URL
Identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.spa.2023.05.002
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2023-05-09