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Report 35: How can we keep schools and universities open? Differentiating closures by economic sector to optimize social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission

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Title: Report 35: How can we keep schools and universities open? Differentiating closures by economic sector to optimize social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission
Authors: Haw, D
Forchini, G
Christen, P
Bajaj, S
Hogan, A
Winskill, P
Miraldo, M
White, P
Ghani, A
Ferguson, N
Smith, P
Hauck, K
Item Type: Report
Abstract: There is a trade-off between the education sector and other economic sectors in the control of SARS-Cov-2 transmission. Here we integrate a dynamic model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with a 63-sector economic model reflecting sectoral heterogeneity in transmission and economic interdependence between sectors. We identify COVID-19 control strategies which optimize economic production while keeping schools and universities operational and constraining infections such that emergency hospital capacity is not exceeded. The model estimates an economic gain of between £163bn and £205bn for the United Kingdom compared to a blanket lockdown of non-essential activity over six months, depending on hospital capacity. Sectors identified as potential priorities for closure are contact-intensive and/or less economically productive.
Issue Date: 16-Nov-2020
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/83928
DOI: 10.25561/83928
Start Page: 1
End Page: 55
Copyright Statement: © 2020. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Sponsor/Funder: Abdul Latif Jameel Foundation
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Funder's Grant Number: MR/R015600/1
Keywords: Coronavirus
COVID19
COVID-19
Economy
Epidemiology
Publication Status: Published
Appears in Collections:Imperial College Business School
Department of Infectious Diseases
Faculty of Medicine
School of Public Health
Imperial College London COVID-19



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