Economic evaluation of adaptation pathways for an urban drainage system experiencing deep uncertainty

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Title: Economic evaluation of adaptation pathways for an urban drainage system experiencing deep uncertainty
Authors: Babovic, F
Mijic, A
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: As Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty methodologies are becoming more widely utilised, there has been a growth in the use and generation of Adaptation Pathways. These are meant to convey to policy makers how short-term adaptations can act as elements of longer-term adaptation strategies. However, sets of Adaptation Pathways do not convey the individual pathway’s relative costs and benefits. To address this problem in relation to urban pluvial flooding, an economic analysis of a set of Adaptation Pathways was conducted. Initially, a methodology to conduct an economic assessment for deterministic climate change scenarios is developed. This methodology is then modified, using methods that underpin real options to assess how a pathway performs across a bundle of possible futures. This delivered information on how the performance of adaptations can vary across different climate change scenarios. By comparing the deterministic analysis to the new method, it was found that the order in which options are implemented greatly affects the financial performance of an Adaptation Pathway, even if the final combination of options is identical. The presented methodology has the potential to greatly improve decision making by informing policy makers on the potential performance of adaptation strategies being considered.
Issue Date: 14-Mar-2019
Date of Acceptance: 8-Mar-2019
ISSN: 2073-4441
Publisher: MDPI
Journal / Book Title: Water
Volume: 11
Issue: 3
Copyright Statement: © 2019 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (
Sponsor/Funder: Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
Keywords: MD Multidisciplinary
Publication Status: Published
Article Number: 531
Online Publication Date: 2019-03-14
Appears in Collections:Civil and Environmental Engineering
Centre for Environmental Policy
Faculty of Natural Sciences

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