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Quantifying the economic value of space weather forecasting for power grids: An exploratory study

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Title: Quantifying the economic value of space weather forecasting for power grids: An exploratory study
Authors: Eastwood, J
Hapgood, MA
Biffis, E
Benedetti, D
Bisi, MM
Green, L
Bentley, RD
Burnett, C
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: An accurate understanding of space weather socioeconomic impact is fundamental to the development of appropriate operational services, forecasting capabilities, and mitigation strategies. One way to approach this problem is by developing physics‐based models and frameworks that can lead to a bottom‐up estimate of risk and likely impact. Here we describe the development of a new framework to assess the economic impact of space weather on power distribution networks and the supply of electricity. In particular, we focus on the phenomenon of the geomagnetic substorm, which is relatively localized in time and space, and occurs multiple times with varying severity during a geomagnetic storm. The framework uses the AE index to characterize substorm severity, and the impact of the substorm is modulated by the resilience of the power grid and the nature of available forecast. Possible scenarios for substorm sequences during a 1‐in‐10‐, a 1‐in‐30‐, and a 1‐in‐100‐year geomagnetic storm events are generated based on the 2003, 1989, and 1859 geomagnetic storms. Economic impact, including international spill over, can then be calculated using standard techniques, based on the duration and the geographical footprint of the power outage. Illustrative calculations are made for the European sector, for a variety of forecast and resilience scenarios. However, currently available data are highly regionally inhomogeneous, frustrating attempts to define an overall global economic impact at the present time.
Issue Date: 11-Jan-2019
Date of Acceptance: 15-Nov-2018
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/66313
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002003
ISSN: 1539-4956
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
Start Page: 2052
End Page: 2067
Journal / Book Title: Space Weather
Volume: 16
Issue: 12
Copyright Statement: ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Eastwood, J. P., Hapgood, M. A., Biffis, E.,Benedetti, D., Bisi, M. M., Green, L., et al. (2018). Quantifying the economic value of space weather forecasting for power grids: An exploratory study. SpaceWeather, 16, 2052–2067, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002003. To view the published open abstract, go to: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002003.
Sponsor/Funder: UK Space Agency
Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
Funder's Grant Number: N/A
NE/P017142/1
Keywords: Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Astronomy & Astrophysics
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GEOMAGNETICALLY INDUCED CURRENTS
OCTOBER 2003
SYSTEM RESILIENCE
IMPACT
STORM
INOPERABILITY
FIELDS
MODEL
RISK
0201 Astronomical And Space Sciences
Publication Status: Published
Online Publication Date: 2018-12-20
Appears in Collections:Space and Atmospheric Physics
Physics
Faculty of Natural Sciences



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