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Mathematical modelling of the impact of expanding levels of malaria control interventions on Plasmodium vivax

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Title: Mathematical modelling of the impact of expanding levels of malaria control interventions on Plasmodium vivax
Authors: White, MT
Walker, PGT
Karl, S
Hetzel, M
Freeman, T
Waltzman, A
Laman, M
Robinson, L
Ghani, A
Mueller, I
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Plasmodium vivax poses unique challenges for malaria control and elimination, notably the potential for relapses to maintain transmission in the face of drug-based treatment and vector control strategies. We developed an individual-based mathematical model of P. vivax transmission calibrated to epidemiological data from Papua New Guinea (PNG). In many settings in PNG, increasing bed net coverage is predicted to reduce transmission to less than 0.1% prevalence by light microscopy, however there is substantial risk of rebounds in transmission if interventions are removed prematurely. In several high transmission settings, model simulations predict that combinations of existing interventions are not sufficient to interrupt P. vivax transmission. This analysis highlights the potential options for the future of P. vivax control: maintaining existing public health gains by keeping transmission suppressed through indefinite distribution of interventions; or continued development of strategies based on existing and new interventions to push for further reduction and towards elimination.
Issue Date: 17-Aug-2018
Date of Acceptance: 23-Jul-2018
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/63774
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05860-8
ISSN: 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
Journal / Book Title: Nature Communications
Volume: 9
Copyright Statement: © 2018 The Author(s). This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Sponsor/Funder: Medical Research Council (MRC)
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Medical Research Council (MRC)
European and Developing Countries Clinical Trial Partnership
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Funder's Grant Number: MR/K010174/1B
MR/L012189/1
MR/L012170/1
CSA-2014-276
GAT.2162-01585030-SUB
Keywords: Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
PAPUA-NEW-GUINEA
ROLL-OUT
TRANSMISSION
INFECTIONS
EPIDEMIOLOGY
FALCIPARUM
NETS
ELIMINATION
PREVALENCE
CHALLENGES
MD Multidisciplinary
Publication Status: Published
Open Access location: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05860-8
Article Number: 3300
Appears in Collections:Epidemiology, Public Health and Primary Care



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