Computational modelling for decision-making: where, why, what, who and how

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Title: Computational modelling for decision-making: where, why, what, who and how
Authors: Calder, M
Craig, C
Culley, D
De Cani, R
Donnelly, CA
Douglas, R
Edmonds, B
Gascoigne, J
Gilbert, N
Hargrove, C
Hinds, D
Lane, DC
Mitchell, D
Pavey, G
Robertson, D
Rosewell, B
Sherwin, S
Walport, M
Wilson, A
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: In order to deal with an increasingly complex world, we need ever more sophisticated computational models that can help us make decisions wisely and understand the potential consequences of choices. But creating a model requires far more than just raw data and technical skills: it requires a close collaboration between model commissioners, developers, users and reviewers. Good modelling requires its users and commissioners to understand more about the whole process, including the different kinds of purpose a model can have and the different technical bases. This paper offers a guide to the process of commissioning, developing and deploying models across a wide range of domains from public policy to science and engineering. It provides two checklists to help potential modellers, commissioners and users ensure they have considered the most significant factors that will determine success. We conclude there is a need to reinforce modelling as a discipline, so that misconstruction is less likely; to increase understanding of modelling in all domains, so that the misuse of models is reduced; and to bring commissioners closer to modelling, so that the results are more useful.
Issue Date: 1-Jun-2018
Date of Acceptance: 10-May-2018
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/61978
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.172096
ISSN: 2054-5703
Publisher: Royal Society, The
Journal / Book Title: Royal Society Open Science
Volume: 5
Issue: 6
Copyright Statement: © 2018 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
Keywords: Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
modelling
decision-making
data
uncertainty
complexity
communication
communication
complexity
data
decision-making
modelling
uncertainty
Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
modelling
decision-making
data
uncertainty
complexity
communication
Publication Status: Published
Article Number: 172096
Online Publication Date: 2018-06-20
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Medicine
Epidemiology, Public Health and Primary Care



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