Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5 degrees C

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Title: Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5 degrees C
Author(s): Seneviratne, S
Wartenburger, R
Guillod, BP
Hirsch, AL
Vogel, MM
Brovkin, V
Van Vuuren, DP
Schaller, N
Boysen, L
Calvin, K
Doelman, J
Greve, P
Havlik, P
Humpenoeder, F
Krisztin, T
Mitchell, D
Popp, A
Riahi, K
Rogelj, J
Schleussner, C-F
Sillmann, J
Stehfest, E
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.
Publication Date: 13-May-2018
Date of Acceptance: 31-Jan-2018
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/60652
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0450
ISSN: 1364-503X
Publisher: The Royal Society
Journal / Book Title: PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES
Volume: 376
Issue: 2119
Copyright Statement: © 2018 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
Keywords: Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
climate extremes
1.5 degrees C scenarios
land-use changes
regional climate change
climate projections
land-climate interactions
EARTH SYSTEM MODEL
SOIL-MOISTURE
HOT EXTREMES
EXPERIMENTAL-DESIGN
CMIP5 PROJECTIONS
PRECIPITATION
TEMPERATURE
MANAGEMENT
IMPACTS
MITIGATION
1.5°C scenarios
climate extremes
climate projections
land-use changes
land–climate interactions
regional climate change
Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
climate extremes
1.5 degrees C scenarios
land-use changes
regional climate change
climate projections
land-climate interactions
EARTH SYSTEM MODEL
SOIL-MOISTURE
HOT EXTREMES
EXPERIMENTAL-DESIGN
CMIP5 PROJECTIONS
PRECIPITATION
TEMPERATURE
MANAGEMENT
IMPACTS
MITIGATION
MD Multidisciplinary
General Science & Technology
Publication Status: Published
Article Number: ARTN 20160450
Online Publication Date: 2018-04-02
Appears in Collections:Centre for Environmental Policy
Faculty of Natural Sciences



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