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Estimating spatiotemporally varying malaria reproduction numbers in a near elimination setting

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Title: Estimating spatiotemporally varying malaria reproduction numbers in a near elimination setting
Authors: Routledge, I
Chevez, JER
Cucunubá, ZM
Gomez Rogriguez, M
Guinovart, C
Gustafson, K
Schneider, K
Walker, PGT
Ghani, A
Bhatt, S
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: In 2016 the World Health Organization identified 21 countries that could eliminate malaria by 2020. Monitoring progress towards this goal requires tracking ongoing transmission. Here we develop methods that estimate individual reproduction numbers and their variation through time and space. Individual reproduction numbers, Rc, describe the state of transmission at a point in time and differ from mean reproduction numbers, which are averages of the number of people infected by a typical case. We assess elimination progress in El Salvador using data for confirmed cases of malaria from 2010 to 2016. Our results demonstrate that whilst the average number of secondary malaria cases was below one (0.61, 95% CI 0.55–0.65), individual reproduction numbers often exceeded one. We estimate a decline in Rc between 2010 and 2016. However we also show that if importation is maintained at the same rate, the country may not achieve malaria elimination by 2020.
Issue Date: 26-Jun-2018
Date of Acceptance: 2-May-2018
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/59777
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04577-y
ISSN: 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
Journal / Book Title: Nature Communications
Volume: 9
Copyright Statement: © The Author(s) 2018. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0/.
Sponsor/Funder: Wellcome Trust
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Medical Research Council
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Funder's Grant Number: 109310/Z/15/Z
MR/K010174/1B
1606H5002/JH6
MR/L012189/1
MR/K010174/1B
MR/R015600/1
Keywords: Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
PLASMODIUM-FALCIPARUM MALARIA
TRANSMISSION INTENSITY
INFECTIOUS-DISEASE
CHALLENGES
EPIDEMIC
COVERAGE
IMPACT
Basic Reproduction Number
El Salvador
Endemic Diseases
Epidemiological Monitoring
Humans
Incidence
Likelihood Functions
Malaria
Malaria, Falciparum
Malaria, Vivax
Risk Factors
Time Factors
MD Multidisciplinary
Publication Status: Published
Article Number: ARTN 2476
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Medicine
Epidemiology, Public Health and Primary Care



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