How can onchocerciasis elimination in Africa be accelerated? Modelling the impact of increased ivermectin treatment frequency and complementary vector control

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Title: How can onchocerciasis elimination in Africa be accelerated? Modelling the impact of increased ivermectin treatment frequency and complementary vector control
Author(s): Verver, S
Walker, M
Kim, YE
Fobi, G
Tekle, AH
Zouré, HGM
Wanji, S
Boakye, DA
Kuesel, AC
De Vlas, SJ
Boussinesq, M
Basanez, MG
Stolk, WA
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Background: Great strides have been made toward onchocerciasis elimination by mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. Focusing on MDA-eligible areas, we investigated where the elimination goal can be achieved by 2025 by continuation of current practice (annual MDA with ivermectin) and where intensification or additional vector control is required. We did not consider areas hypoendemic for onchocerciasis with loiasis coendemicity where MDA is contraindicated. Methods: We used 2 previously published mathematical models, ONCHOSIM and EPIONCHO, to simulate future trends in microfilarial prevalence for 80 different settings (defined by precontrol endemicity and past MDA frequency and coverage) under different future treatment scenarios (annual, biannual, or quarterly MDA with different treatment coverage through 2025, with or without vector control strategies), assessing for each strategy whether it eventually leads to elimination. Results: Areas with 40%–50% precontrol microfilarial prevalence and ≥10 years of annual MDA may achieve elimination with a further 7 years of annual MDA, if not achieved already, according to both models. For most areas with 70%–80% precontrol prevalence, ONCHOSIM predicts that either annual or biannual MDA is sufficient to achieve elimination by 2025, whereas EPIONCHO predicts that elimination will not be achieved even with complementary vector control. Conclusions: Whether elimination will be reached by 2025 depends on precontrol endemicity, control history, and strategies chosen from now until 2025. Biannual or quarterly MDA will accelerate progress toward elimination but cannot guarantee it by 2025 in high-endemicity areas. Long-term concomitant MDA and vector control for high-endemicity areas might be useful.
Publication Date: 1-Jun-2018
Date of Acceptance: 28-Dec-2017
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/55864
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/cix1137
ISSN: 1058-4838
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Start Page: S267
End Page: S274
Journal / Book Title: Clinical Infectious Diseases
Volume: 66
Issue: Suppl. 4
Sponsor/Funder: The Task Force for Global Health
Funder's Grant Number: MA4501180169
Copyright Statement: © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO (CC BY 3.0 IGO) License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/) which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Keywords: Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Immunology
Infectious Diseases
Microbiology
onchocerciasis
modeling
mass drug administration
ivermectin
elimination
RIVER-BLINDNESS
ECONOMIC-EVALUATION
CONTROL PROGRAM
WEST-AFRICA
TRANSMISSION
EFFICACY
VOLVULUS
06 Biological Sciences
11 Medical And Health Sciences
Microbiology
Publication Status: Published
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Medicine
Epidemiology, Public Health and Primary Care



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