Prospective improvements in cost and cycle life of off-grid lithium-ion battery packs: An analysis informed by expert elicitations

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Title: Prospective improvements in cost and cycle life of off-grid lithium-ion battery packs: An analysis informed by expert elicitations
Author(s): Few, SPM
Schmidt, O
Offer, GJ
Brandon, N
Nelson, J
Gambhir, A
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: This paper presents probabilistic estimates of the 2020 and 2030 cost and cycle life of lithium-ion battery (LiB) packs for off-grid stationary electricity storage made by leading battery experts from academia and industry, and insights on the role of public research and development (R&D) funding and other drivers in determining these. By 2020, experts expect developments to arise chiefly through engineering, manufacturing and incremental chemistry changes, and expect additional R&D funding to have little impact on cost. By 2030, experts indicate that more fundamental chemistry changes are possible, particularly under higher R&D funding scenarios, but are not inevitable. Experts suggest that significant improvements in cycle life (eg. doubling or greater) are more achievable than in cost, particularly by 2020, and that R&D could play a greater role in driving these. Experts expressed some concern, but had relatively little knowledge, of the environmental impact of LiBs. Analysis is conducted of the implications of prospective LiB improvements for the competitiveness of solar photovoltaic + LiB systems for off-grid electrification.
Publication Date: 5-Jan-2018
Date of Acceptance: 20-Dec-2017
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/55769
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.12.033
ISSN: 0301-4215
Publisher: Elsevier
Start Page: 578
End Page: 590
Journal / Book Title: Energy Policy
Volume: 114
Copyright Statement: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
Sponsor/Funder: Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (E
Economic & Social Research Council (ESRC)
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (E
Funder's Grant Number: EP/K503733/1
ES/M500562/1
EP/L019469/1
Keywords: MD Multidisciplinary
Energy
Publication Status: Published
Appears in Collections:Mechanical Engineering
Centre for Environmental Policy
Faculty of Natural Sciences



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