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A Risk Assessment Framework for Seed Degeneration: Informing an Integrated Seed Health Strategy for Vegetatively Propagated Crops

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Title: A Risk Assessment Framework for Seed Degeneration: Informing an Integrated Seed Health Strategy for Vegetatively Propagated Crops
Authors: Thomas-Sharma, S
Andrade-Piedra, J
Carvajal Yepes, M
Nopsa, JFH
Jeger, MJ
Jones, RAC
Kromann, P
Legg, JP
Yuen, J
Forbes, GA
Garrett, KA
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Pathogen buildup in vegetative planting material, termed seed degeneration, is a major problem in many low-income countries. When smallholder farmers use seed produced on-farm or acquired outside certified programs, it is often infected. We introduce a risk assessment framework for seed degeneration, evaluating the relative performance of individual and combined components of an integrated seed health strategy. The frequency distribution of management performance outcomes was evaluated for models incorporating biological and environmental heterogeneity, with the following results. (1) On-farm seed selection can perform as well as certified seed, if the rate of success in selecting healthy plants for seed production is high; (2) when choosing among within-season management strategies, external inoculum can determine the relative usefulness of ‘incidence-altering management’ (affecting the proportion of diseased plants/seeds) and ‘rate-altering management’ (affecting the rate of disease transmission in the field); (3) under severe disease scenarios, where it is difficult to implement management components at high levels of effectiveness, combining management components can be synergistic and keep seed degeneration below a threshold; (4) combining management components can also close the yield gap between average and worst-case scenarios. We also illustrate the potential for expert elicitation to provide parameter estimates when empirical data are unavailable.
Issue Date: 1-Oct-2017
Date of Acceptance: 1-May-2017
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/55556
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1094/PHYTO-09-16-0340-R
ISSN: 0031-949X
Publisher: American Phytopathological Society
Start Page: 1123
End Page: 1135
Journal / Book Title: Phytopathology
Volume: 107
Issue: 10
Copyright Statement: Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
Keywords: Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Plant Sciences
banana
cassava
environmental heterogeneity
positive selection
potato
root crops
seed degeneration
seed health
simulation models
sweetpotato
tuber crops
vegetative propagation
yam
CASSAVA MOSAIC-VIRUS
AFRICAN CASSAVA
DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES
SMALLHOLDER FARMERS
DISEASE MANAGEMENT
EXPERT KNOWLEDGE
CLIMATE-CHANGE
SWEET-POTATO
PATHOGENS
INFECTION
0607 Plant Biology
0605 Microbiology
0703 Crop And Pasture Production
Plant Biology & Botany
Publication Status: Published
Appears in Collections:Centre for Environmental Policy
Faculty of Natural Sciences



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