A hazard-based approach to modelling the effects of online shopping on intershopping duration

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Title: A hazard-based approach to modelling the effects of online shopping on intershopping duration
Author(s): Suel, E
Daina, N
Polak, JW
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Despite growing prevalence of online shopping, its impacts on mobility are poorly understood. This partially results from the lack of sufficiently detailed data. In this paper we address this gap using consumer panel data, a new dataset for this context. We analyse one year long longitudinal grocery shopping purchase data from London shoppers to investigate the effects of online shopping on overall shopping activity pat- terns and personal trips. We characterise the temporal structure of shopping demand by means of the duration between shopping episodes using hazard-based duration models. These models have been used to study inter-shopping spells for traditional shopping in the literature, however effects of online shopping were not considered. Here, we differentiate between shopping events and shopping trips. The former refers to all types of shopping activity including both online and in-store, while the latter is restricted to physical shopping trips. Separate models were estimated for each and results suggest potential substitution effects between online and in-store in the context of grocery shopping. We find that having shopped online since the last shopping trip significantly reduces the likelihood of a physical shopping trip. We do not observe the same effect for inter-event durations. Hence, shopping online does not have a sig- nificant effect on overall shopping activity frequency, yet affects shopping trip rates. This is a key finding and suggests potential substitution between online shopping and physical trips to the store. Additional insights on which factors, including basket size and demographics, affect inter-shopping durations are also drawn.
Publication Date: 21-Nov-2017
Date of Acceptance: 7-Nov-2017
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/53499
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11116-017-9838-3
ISSN: 1572-9435
Publisher: Springer Verlag
Journal / Book Title: Transportation
Sponsor/Funder: Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC)
EPSRC
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (E
Funder's Grant Number: EP/I038837/1
EP/I038837/1
BH151279 (EP/N010612/1)
Keywords: 0905 Civil Engineering
1205 Urban And Regional Planning
1507 Transportation And Freight Services
Logistics & Transportation
Publication Status: Published
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Engineering
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Centre for Environmental Policy
Faculty of Natural Sciences



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