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Estimation of Transmission Parameters of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens

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Title: Estimation of Transmission Parameters of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens
Authors: Bouma, A
Claassen, I
Natih, K
Klinkenberg, D
Donnelly, CA
Koch, G
Van Boven, M
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Despite considerable research efforts, little is yet known about key epidemiological parameters of H5N1 highly pathogenic influenza viruses in their avian hosts. Here we show how these parameters can be estimated using a limited number of birds in experimental transmission studies. Our quantitative estimates, based on Bayesian methods of inference, reveal that (i) the period of latency of H5N1 influenza virus in unvaccinated chickens is short (mean: 0.24 days; 95% credible interval: 0.099–0.48 days); (ii) the infectious period of H5N1 virus in unvaccinated chickens is approximately 2 days (mean: 2.1 days; 95%CI: 1.8–2.3 days); (iii) the reproduction number of H5N1 virus in unvaccinated chickens need not be high (mean: 1.6; 95%CI: 0.90–2.5), although the virus is expected to spread rapidly because it has a short generation interval in unvaccinated chickens (mean: 1.3 days; 95%CI: 1.0–1.5 days); and (iv) vaccination with genetically and antigenically distant H5N2 vaccines can effectively halt transmission. Simulations based on the estimated parameters indicate that herd immunity may be obtained if at least 80% of chickens in a flock are vaccinated. We discuss the implications for the control of H5N1 avian influenza virus in areas where it is endemic.
Issue Date: 30-Jan-2009
Date of Acceptance: 26-Dec-2008
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/48837
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1000281
ISSN: 1553-7366
Publisher: Public Library of Science
Journal / Book Title: PLOS Pathogens
Volume: 5
Issue: 1
Copyright Statement: © 2009 Bouma et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Sponsor/Funder: Medical Research Council (MRC)
Funder's Grant Number: G0600719B
Keywords: Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Microbiology
Parasitology
Virology
MICROBIOLOGY
PARASITOLOGY
VIROLOGY
STOCHASTIC EPIDEMICS
BAYESIAN-INFERENCE
H7N7 EPIDEMIC
POULTRY
VACCINATION
DISEASE
MODELS
NETHERLANDS
POPULATIONS
MORTALITY
Animals
Bayes Theorem
Chickens
Computer Simulation
Immunity, Herd
Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype
Influenza Vaccines
Influenza in Birds
Vaccination
Virus Latency
0605 Microbiology
1107 Immunology
1108 Medical Microbiology
Publication Status: Published
Article Number: ARTN e1000281
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Medicine
Epidemiology, Public Health and Primary Care



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