vCJD risk in the Republic of Ireland

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Title: vCJD risk in the Republic of Ireland
Authors: Harney, MS
Ghani, AC
Donnelly, CA
Walsh, RM
Walsh, M
Howley, R
Brett, F
Farrell, M
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Background: The Republic of Ireland has the second highest incidence of BSE worldwide. Only a single case of vCJD has been identified to date. Methods: We estimate the total future number of clinical cases of vCJD using an established mathematical model, and based on infectivity of bovine tissue calculated from UK data and on the relative exposure to BSE contaminated meat. Results: We estimate 1 future clinical case (95% CI 0 – 15) of vCJD in the Republic of Ireland. Irish exposure is from BSE infected indigenous beef products and from imported UK beef products. Additionally, 2.5% of the Irish population was exposed to UK beef through residing in the UK during the 'at-risk' period. The relative proportion of risk attributable to each of these three exposures individually is 2:2:1 respectively. Conclusions: The low numbers of future vCJD cases estimated in this study is reassuring for the Irish population and for other countries with a similar level of BSE exposure.
Issue Date: 26-Nov-2003
Date of Acceptance: 26-Nov-2003
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/48829
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1471-2334-3-28
ISSN: 1471-2334
Publisher: BioMed Central
Journal / Book Title: BMC Infectious Diseases
Volume: 3
Issue: 1
Copyright Statement: © 2003 Harney et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article: verbatim copying and redistribution of this article are permitted in all media for any purpose, provided this notice is preserved along with the article's original URL.
Keywords: Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Infectious Diseases
INFECTIOUS DISEASES
CREUTZFELDT-JAKOB-DISEASE
GREAT-BRITAIN
PRION PROTEIN
VARIANT CJD
TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS
BSE
EPIDEMIC
UK
PATTERN
FUTURE
Animals
Cattle
Creutzfeldt-Jakob Syndrome
Encephalopathy, Bovine Spongiform
Food Contamination
Humans
Incidence
Ireland
Meat Products
Models, Biological
Risk Factors
Microbiology
0605 Microbiology
1103 Clinical Sciences
1108 Medical Microbiology
Publication Status: Published
Article Number: ARTN 28
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Medicine
Epidemiology, Public Health and Primary Care



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