Updated projections of future vCJD deaths in the UK

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Title: Updated projections of future vCJD deaths in the UK
Authors: Ghani, AC
Donnelly, CA
Ferguson, NM
Anderson, RM
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Background: Past projections of the future course of the vCJD epidemic in the UK have shown considerable uncertainty, with wide confidence bounds. However, recent vCJD case data have indicated a decrease in the annual incidence of deaths over the past two years. Methods: A detailed survival model is fitted to the 121 vCJD deaths reported by the end of 2002 stratified by age and calendar time to obtain projections of future incidence. The model is additionally fitted to recent results from a survey of appendix tissues. Results: Our results show a substantial decrease in the uncertainty of the future course of the primary epidemic in the susceptible genotype (MM-homozygous at codon 129 of the prion protein gene), with a best estimate of 40 future deaths (95% prediction interval 9–540) based on fitting to the vCJD case data alone. Additional fitting of the appendix data increases these estimates (best estimate 100, 95% prediction interval 10–2,600) but remains lower than previous projections. Conclusions: The primary vCJD epidemic in the known susceptible genotype in the UK appears to be in decline.
Issue Date: 27-Apr-2003
Date of Acceptance: 27-Apr-2003
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/48826
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1471-2334-3-4
ISSN: 1471-2334
Publisher: BioMed Central
Journal / Book Title: BMC Infectious Diseases
Volume: 3
Issue: 1
Copyright Statement: © 2003 Ghani et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article: verbatim copying and redistribution of this article are permitted in all media for any purpose, provided this notice is preserved along with the article's original URL.
Keywords: Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Infectious Diseases
INFECTIOUS DISEASES
CREUTZFELDT-JAKOB-DISEASE
BOVINE SPONGIFORM ENCEPHALOPATHY
PRION-PROTEIN
VARIANT CJD
INCUBATION PERIOD
BSE INFECTION
GREAT-BRITAIN
TRANSMISSION
ACCUMULATION
PATHOGENESIS
Creutzfeldt-Jakob Syndrome
Disease Outbreaks
Forecasting
Humans
Incidence
Mortality
United Kingdom
Great Britain
Microbiology
0605 Microbiology
1103 Clinical Sciences
1108 Medical Microbiology
Publication Status: Published
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Medicine
Epidemiology, Public Health and Primary Care



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