The impact of stratified immunity on the transmission dynamics of influenza

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Title: The impact of stratified immunity on the transmission dynamics of influenza
Author(s): Yuan, H-Y
Baguelin, M
Kwok, KO
Arinaminpathy, N
Van Leeuwen, E
Riley, S
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Although empirical studies show that protection against influenza infection in humans is closely related to antibody titres, influenza epidemics are often described under the assumption that individuals are either susceptible or not. Here we develop a model in which antibody titre classes are enumerated explicitly and mapped onto a variable scale of susceptibility in different age groups. Fitting only with pre- and post-wave serological data during 2009 pandemic in Hong Kong, we demonstrate that with stratified immunity, the timing and the magnitude of the epidemic dynamics can be reconstructed more accurately than is possible with binary seropositivity data. We also show that increased infectiousness of children relative to adults and age-specific mixing are required to reproduce age-specific seroprevalence observed in Hong Kong, while pre-existing immunity in the elderly is not. Overall, our results suggest that stratified immunity in an aged-structured heterogeneous population plays a significant role in determining the shape of influenza epidemics.
Publication Date: 12-Mar-2017
Date of Acceptance: 8-Mar-2017
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/45910
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2017.03.003
ISSN: 1755-4365
Publisher: Elsevier
Start Page: 84
End Page: 93
Journal / Book Title: Epidemics
Volume: 20
Sponsor/Funder: Wellcome Trust
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Medical Research Council (MRC)
National Institute for Health Research
National Institute for Health Research
National Institutes of Health
Wellcome Trust
Wellcome Trust
Funder's Grant Number: 093488/Z/10/Z
MR/J008761/1
MR/K010174/1B
HPRU-2012-10080
IS-HPU-1112-10064
1U01GM110721-03
200187/Z/15/Z
200861/Z/16/Z
Copyright Statement: © 2017 Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Keywords: Age-specific seroprevalence
Antibody responses
Epidemic model
Inferring transmission dynamics
Influenza
Stratified immunity
1103 Clinical Sciences
1117 Public Health And Health Services
Publication Status: Published
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Medicine
Epidemiology, Public Health and Primary Care



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