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Developmental Profiles of Eczema, Wheeze, and Rhinitis: Two Population-Based Birth Cohort Studies

Title: Developmental Profiles of Eczema, Wheeze, and Rhinitis: Two Population-Based Birth Cohort Studies
Authors: Belgrave, DC
Granell, R
Simpson, A
Guiver, J
Bishop, C
Buchan, I
Henderson, AJ
Custovic, A
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: BACKGROUND: The term "atopic march" has been used to imply a natural progression of a cascade of symptoms from eczema to asthma and rhinitis through childhood. We hypothesize that this expression does not adequately describe the natural history of eczema, wheeze, and rhinitis during childhood. We propose that this paradigm arose from cross-sectional analyses of longitudinal studies, and may reflect a population pattern that may not predominate at the individual level. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data from 9,801 children in two population-based birth cohorts were used to determine individual profiles of eczema, wheeze, and rhinitis and whether the manifestations of these symptoms followed an atopic march pattern. Children were assessed at ages 1, 3, 5, 8, and 11 y. We used Bayesian machine learning methods to identify distinct latent classes based on individual profiles of eczema, wheeze, and rhinitis. This approach allowed us to identify groups of children with similar patterns of eczema, wheeze, and rhinitis over time. Using a latent disease profile model, the data were best described by eight latent classes: no disease (51.3%), atopic march (3.1%), persistent eczema and wheeze (2.7%), persistent eczema with later-onset rhinitis (4.7%), persistent wheeze with later-onset rhinitis (5.7%), transient wheeze (7.7%), eczema only (15.3%), and rhinitis only (9.6%). When latent variable modelling was carried out separately for the two cohorts, similar results were obtained. Highly concordant patterns of sensitisation were associated with different profiles of eczema, rhinitis, and wheeze. The main limitation of this study was the difference in wording of the questions used to ascertain the presence of eczema, wheeze, and rhinitis in the two cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The developmental profiles of eczema, wheeze, and rhinitis are heterogeneous; only a small proportion of children (∼ 7% of those with symptoms) follow trajectory profiles resembling the atopic march. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
Issue Date: 21-Oct-2014
Date of Acceptance: 12-Sep-2014
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/40903
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001748
ISSN: 1549-1277
Publisher: Public Library of Science
Journal / Book Title: PLOS Medicine
Volume: 11
Issue: 10
Copyright Statement: © 2014 Belgrave et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Keywords: Bayes Theorem
Child
Child, Preschool
Cross-Sectional Studies
Eczema
Female
Humans
Longitudinal Studies
Male
Respiratory Sounds
Rhinitis
General & Internal Medicine
11 Medical And Health Sciences
Publication Status: Published
Article Number: e1001748
Appears in Collections:Department of Medicine



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