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The number of privately treated tuberculosis cases in India: an estimation from drug sales data

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Title: The number of privately treated tuberculosis cases in India: an estimation from drug sales data
Authors: Arinaminpathy, N
Batra, D
Khaparde, S
Vualnam, T
Maheshwari, N
Sharma, L
Nair, SA
Dewan, P
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Background Understanding the amount of tuberculosis managed by the private sector in India is crucial to understanding the true burden of the disease in the country, and thus globally. In the absence of quality surveillance data on privately treated patients, commercial drug sales data offer an empirical foundation for disease burden estimation. Methods We used a large, nationally representative commercial dataset on sales of 189 anti-tuberculosis products available in India to calculate the amount of anti-tuberculosis treatment in the private sector in 2013–14. We corrected estimates using validation studies that audited prescriptions against tuberculosis diagnosis, and estimated uncertainty using Monte Carlo simulation. To address implications for numbers of patients with tuberculosis, we explored varying assumptions for average duration of tuberculosis treatment and accuracy of private diagnosis. Findings There were 17·793 million patient-months (95% credible interval 16·709 million to 19·841 million) of anti-tuberculosis treatment in the private sector in 2014, twice as many as the public sector. If 40–60% of private-sector tuberculosis diagnoses are correct, and if private-sector tuberculosis treatment lasts on average 2–6 months, this implies that 1·19–5·34 million tuberculosis cases were treated in the private sector in 2014 alone. The midpoint of these ranges yields an estimate of 2·2 million cases, two to three times higher than currently assumed. Interpretation India's private sector is treating an enormous number of patients for tuberculosis, appreciably higher than has been previously recognised. Accordingly, there is a re-doubled need to address this burden and to strengthen surveillance. Tuberculosis burden estimates in India and worldwide require revision.
Issue Date: 25-Aug-2016
Date of Acceptance: 1-Aug-2016
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/39743
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30259-6
ISSN: 1473-3099
Publisher: Elsevier
Start Page: 1255
End Page: 1260
Journal / Book Title: Lancet Infectious Diseases
Volume: 16
Issue: 11
Copyright Statement: © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license.
Sponsor/Funder: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Funder's Grant Number: OPP1095710
Keywords: Microbiology
1103 Clinical Sciences
1108 Medical Microbiology
Publication Status: Published
Open Access location: http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(16)30259-6.pdf
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Medicine
Epidemiology, Public Health and Primary Care



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