Variability and uncertainty in empirical ground-motion prediction for probabilistic hazard and risk analyses

File Description SizeFormat 
Stafford (2015).pdfPublished version1.61 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
Title: Variability and uncertainty in empirical ground-motion prediction for probabilistic hazard and risk analyses
Authors: Stafford, PJ
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: © The Author(s) 2015.The terms aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty mean different things to people who routinely use them within the fields of seismic hazard and risk analysis. This state is not helped by the repetition of loosely framed generic definitions that actually inaccurate. The present paper takes a closer look at the components of total uncertainty that contribute to ground-motion modelling in hazard and risk applications. The sources and nature of uncertainty are discussed and it is shown that the common approach to deciding what should be included within hazard and risk integrals and what should be pushed into logic tree formulations warrants reconsideration. In addition, it is shown that current approaches to the generation of random fields of ground motions for spatial risk analyses are incorrect and a more appropriate framework is presented.
Issue Date: 1-Jan-2015
Date of Acceptance: 1-Jan-2015
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/26667
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16964-4_4
ISSN: 1573-6059
Publisher: Springer
Start Page: 97
End Page: 128
Journal / Book Title: Geotechnical, Geological and Earthquake Engineering
Volume: 39
Copyright Statement: © The Author(s) 2015. Available under Open Access
Publication Status: Published
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Engineering
Civil and Environmental Engineering



Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.

Creative Commonsx