Silhol, RomainRomainSilholGeidelberg, LilyLilyGeidelbergMitchell, KateKateMitchellMishra, SharmisthaSharmisthaMishraDimitrov, DobromirDobromirDimitrovBowring, AnnaAnnaBowringBehanzin, LucLucBehanzinGuedou, FernandFernandGuedouDiabate, SouleymaneSouleymaneDiabateSchwartz, ShereeShereeSchwartzBillong, SergeSergeBillongMfochive Njindam, IliassouIliassouMfochive NjindamLevitt, DanielDanielLevittMukandavire, ChristinahChristinahMukandavireMaheu-Giroux, MathieuMathieuMaheu-GirouxRönn, MinttuMinttuRönnDalal, ShonaShonaDalalVickerman, PeterPeterVickermanBaral, StefanStefanBaralAlary, MichelMichelAlaryBoily, Marie-ClaudeMarie-ClaudeBoily2021-02-112021-07-01JAIDS: Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 2021, 87 (3), pp.899-9111525-4135http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/85979Background: The COVID-19 pandemic indirectly impacts HIV epidemiology in Central/West Africa. We estimated the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to HIV prevention/treatment services and sexual partnerships on HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths among key populations including female sex workers (FSW), their clients, men who have sex with men (MSM), and overall. Setting: Yaoundé (Cameroon) and Cotonou (Benin). Methods: We used mathematical models of HIV calibrated to city- and risk-population-specific demographic/behavioural/epidemic data. We estimated the relative change in 1-year HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths for various disruption scenarios of HIV prevention/treatment services and decreased casual/commercial partnerships, compared to a scenario without COVID-19. Results: A 50% reduction in condom use in all partnerships over 6 months would increase 1-year HIV incidence by 39%, 42%, 31% and 23% among MSM, FSW, clients, and overall in Yaoundé respectively, and 69%, 49% and 23% among FSW, clients and overall respectively in Cotonou. Combining a 6-month interruption of ART initiation and 50% reduction in HIV prevention/treatment use would increase HIV incidence by 50% and HIV-related deaths by 20%. This increase in HIV infections would be halved by a simultaneous 50% reduction in casual and commercial partnerships. Conclusions: Reductions in condom use following COVID-19 would increase infections among key populations disproportionately, particularly FSW in Cotonou, who need uninterrupted condom provision. Disruptions in HIV prevention/treatment services have the biggest impacts on HIV infections and deaths overall, only partially mitigated by equal reductions in casual/commercial sexual partnerships. Maintaining ART provision must be prioritised to minimise short-term excess HIV-related deaths.Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. This is a non-final version of an article that will be published in final form in JAIDS: Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND), where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in anyway or used commercially without permission from the journal.Virology1103 Clinical Sciences1117 Public Health and Health ServicesJournal Articlehttps://www.dx.doi.org/10.1097/QAI.0000000000002663https://journals.lww.com/jaids/Abstract/9000/Assessing_the_potential_impact_of_disruptions_due.95920.aspxUM1AI068617 Sub#0001014222