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Dynamics of competing SARS-CoV-2 variants during the Omicron epidemic in England

Title: Dynamics of competing SARS-CoV-2 variants during the Omicron epidemic in England
Authors: Eales, O
Martins, LDO
Page, AJ
Wang, H
Bodinier, B
Tang, D
Haw, D
Jonnerby, J
Atchison, C
Ashby, D
Barclay, W
Taylor, G
Cooke, G
Ward, H
Darzi, A
Riley, S
Elliott, P
Donnelly, CA
Chadeau-Hyam, M
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been characterised by the regular emergence of genomic variants. With natural and vaccine-induced population immunity at high levels, evolutionary pressure favours variants better able to evade SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies. The Omicron variant (first detected in November 2021) exhibited a high degree of immune evasion, leading to increased infection rates worldwide. However, estimates of the magnitude of this Omicron wave have often relied on routine testing data, which are prone to several biases. Using data from the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study, a series of cross-sectional surveys assessing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England, we estimated the dynamics of England’s Omicron wave (from 9 September 2021 to 1 March 2022). We estimate an initial peak in national Omicron prevalence of 6.89% (5.34%, 10.61%) during January 2022, followed by a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 infections as the more transmissible Omicron sub-lineage, BA.2 replaced BA.1 and BA.1.1. Assuming the emergence of further distinct variants, intermittent epidemics of similar magnitudes may become the ‘new normal’.
Issue Date: 28-Jul-2022
Date of Acceptance: 14-Jul-2022
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/99418
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32096-4
ISSN: 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Research
Journal / Book Title: Nature Communications
Volume: 13
Issue: 1
Copyright Statement: © The Author(s) 2022
Sponsor/Funder: Department of Health
Department of Health
Funder's Grant Number: n/a
n/a
Keywords: Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
GLOBAL CIRCULATION
RESURGENCE
COVID-19
Antibodies, Viral
COVID-19
Cross-Sectional Studies
Epidemics
Humans
SARS-CoV-2
Humans
Antibodies, Viral
Cross-Sectional Studies
Epidemics
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
GLOBAL CIRCULATION
RESURGENCE
COVID-19
Publication Status: Published
Article Number: ARTN 4375
Appears in Collections:Department of Surgery and Cancer
Department of Infectious Diseases
Institute of Global Health Innovation
School of Public Health



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