Experimental and numerical modelling investigations into coal mine rockbursts and gas outbursts

Abstract

Rockbursts and gas outbursts are a longstanding hazard in underground coal mining due to their sudden occurrences and high consequences. These hazards are becoming prominent due to the increase in mining depth, difficult mining conditions, and adverse gas pressure conditions. Several researchers have proposed different theories, mechanisms, and indices to determine the rockbursts and gas outbursts liability but most of them focus on only some aspects of the complex engineering system for the ease to represent them using partial differential equations. They have often ignored the dynamics of changing mining environment, coal seam heterogeneity and stochastic variations in the rock properties. Most of the indices proposed were empirical and their suitability to different mining conditions is largely debated. To overcome the limitations of previous theories, mechanisms and indices, a probabilistic risk assessment framework was developed in this research to mathematically represent the complex engineering phenomena of rockbursts and gas outbursts for a heterogeneous coal seam. An innovative object-based non-conditional simulation approach was used to distribute lithological heterogeneity occurring in the coal seam to respect their geological origin. The dynamically changing mining conditions during a longwall top coal caving mining (LTCC) was extracted from a coupled numerical model to provide statistically sufficient data for probabilistic analysis. The complex interdependencies among several parameters, their stochastic variations and uncertainty were realistically implemented in the GoldSim software, and 100,000 equally likely scenarios were simulated using the Monte Carlo method to determine the probability of rockbursts and gas outbursts. The results obtained from the probabilistic risk assessment analysis incorporate the variations occurring due to lithological heterogeneity and give a probability for the occurrence of rockbursts, coal and gas outbursts, and safe mining conditions. The framework realistically represents the complex mining environment, is resilient and results are reliable. The framework is generic and can be suitably modified to be used in different underground mining scenarios, overcoming the limitations of earlier empirical indices used.