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Optimizing social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission using DAEDALUS

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NATCOMPUTSCI-21-0218 DAEDALUS supplement.pdfSupporting information1.21 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
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Title: Optimizing social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission using DAEDALUS
Authors: Haw, D
Forchini, G
Doohan, P
Christen, P
Pianella, M
Johnson, R
Bajaj, S
Hogan, A
Winskill, P
Miraldo, M
White, P
Ghani, A
Ferguson, N
Smith, P
Hauck, K
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: To study the trade-off between economic, social and health outcomes in the management of a pandemic, DAEDALUS integrates a dynamic epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with a multi-sector economic model, reflecting sectoral heterogeneity in transmission and complex supply chains. The model identifies mitigation strategies that optimize economic production while constraining infections so that hospital capacity is not exceeded but allowing essential services, including much of the education sector, to remain active. The model differentiates closures by economic sector, keeping those sectors open that contribute little to transmission but much to economic output and those that produce essential services as intermediate or final consumption products. In an illustrative application to 63 sectors in the United Kingdom, the model achieves an economic gain of between £161 billion (24%) and £193 billion (29%) compared to a blanket lockdown of non-essential activities over six months. Although it has been designed for SARS-CoV-2, DAEDALUS is sufficiently flexible to be applicable to pandemics with different epidemiological characteristics.
Issue Date: 1-Apr-2022
Date of Acceptance: 3-Mar-2022
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/99038
DOI: 10.1038/s43588-022-00233-0
ISSN: 2662-8457
Publisher: Nature Research
Start Page: 223
End Page: 233
Journal / Book Title: Nature Computational Science
Volume: 2
Copyright Statement: © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature America, Inc.
Sponsor/Funder: Medical Research Council (MRC)
National Institute for Health Research
Abdul Latif Jameel Foundation
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Funder's Grant Number: MR/R015600/1
NIHR200908
EP/V520354/1
Publication Status: Published
Online Publication Date: 2022-04-28
Appears in Collections:Imperial College Business School
Department of Infectious Diseases
Faculty of Medicine
Imperial College London COVID-19
School of Public Health