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Dynamics of a national Omicron SARS-CoV-2 epidemic during January 2022 in England

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Title: Dynamics of a national Omicron SARS-CoV-2 epidemic during January 2022 in England
Authors: Elliott, P
Eales, O
Bodinier, B
Tang, D
Wang, H
Jonnerby, LJA
Haw, D
Elliott, J
Whitaker, M
Walters, C
Atchison, C
Diggle, P
Page, A
Trotter, A
Ashby, D
Barclay, W
Taylor, G
Ward, H
Darzi, A
Cooke, G
Chadeau, M
Donnelly, C
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Rapid transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant has led to record-breaking case incidence rates around the world. Since May 2020, the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study tracked the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England through RT-PCR of self-administered throat and nose swabs from randomly-selected participants aged 5 years and over. In January 2022, we found an overall weighted prevalence of 4.41% (n=102,174), three-fold higher than in November to December 2021; we sequenced 2,374 (99.2%) Omicron infections (19 BA.2), and only 19 (0.79%) Delta, with a growth rate advantage for BA.2 compared to BA.1 or BA.1.1. Prevalence was decreasing overall (reproduction number R=0.95, 95% credible interval [CrI], 0.93, 0.97), but increasing in children aged 5 to 17 years (R=1.13, 95% CrI, 1.09, 1.18). In England during January 2022, we observed unprecedented levels of SARS-CoV-2 infection, especially among children, driven by almost complete replacement of Delta by Omicron.
Issue Date: 3-Aug-2022
Date of Acceptance: 14-Jul-2022
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/98393
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32121-6
ISSN: 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Research
Journal / Book Title: Nature Communications
Volume: 13
Copyright Statement: © The Author(s) 2022. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Sponsor/Funder: Cancer Research UK
Commission of the European Communities
Commission of the European Communities
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust- BRC Funding
Wellcome Trust
National Institute for Health Research
Department of Health
Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust: Research Capability Funding (RCF)
Department of Health
National Institute for Health Research
UK Research and Innovation
Funder's Grant Number: ‘Mechanomics’ PRC project grant 22184
874627
874739
MR/R015600/1
RDF01
205456/A/16/Z
NF-SI-0617-10116
n/a
RDF04
n/a
RP-2016-07-012
9815274 MC_PC_19025
Keywords: Base Sequence
COVID-19
Child
Humans
SARS-CoV-2
Specimen Handling
Publication Status: Published
Article Number: ARTN 4500
Appears in Collections:Department of Surgery and Cancer
Department of Infectious Diseases
National Heart and Lung Institute
Faculty of Medicine
Institute of Global Health Innovation
School of Public Health



This item is licensed under a Creative Commons License Creative Commons