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Attribution of typhoons-induced torrential precipitation in Central Vietnam, October 2020

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Title: Attribution of typhoons-induced torrential precipitation in Central Vietnam, October 2020
Authors: Luu, LN
Paolo, S
Kew, S
Philip, S
Hariadi, MH
Vautard, R
Mai, KV
Vu, TV
Truong, KB
Otto, F
Van der Schrier, G
Van Aalst, M
Van Oldenborgh, GJ
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: In October 2020, Central Vietnam was struck by heavy rain resulting from a sequence of 5 tropical depressions and typhoons. The immense amount of water led to extensive flooding and landslides that killed more than 200 people, injured more than 500 people and caused direct damages valued at approximately 1.2 billion USD. Here, we quantify how the intensity of the precipitation leading to such exceptional impacts is attributable to anthropogenic climate change. First, we define the event as the regional maximum of annual maximum 15-day average rainfall (Rx15day). We then analyse the trend in Rx15day over Central Vietnam from observations and simulations in the PRIMAVERA and CORDEX-CORE ensembles, which pass our evaluation tests, by applying the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution in which location and scale parameters exponentially co-vary with increasing global temperatures. Combining these observations and model results, we find that the 2020 event, occurring about once every 80 years (at least 17 years), has not changed in either probability of occurrence (a factor 1.0, ranging from 0.4 to 2.4) or intensity (0%, ranging from −8% to +8%) in the present climate in comparison with early-industrial climate. This implies that the effect of human-induced climate change contributing to this persistent extreme rainfall event is small compared to natural variability. However, given the scale of damage of this hazard, our results underline that more investment in disaster risk reduction for this type of rainfall-induced flood hazard is of importance, even independent of the effect of anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, as both observations and model simulations will be extended with the passage of time, we encourage more climate change impact investigations on the extreme in the future that help adaptation and mitigation plans and raise awareness in the country.
Date of Acceptance: 9-Nov-2021
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/92946
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03261-3
ISSN: 0165-0009
Publisher: Springer
Journal / Book Title: Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change
Volume: 169
Issue: 24
Copyright Statement: ©The Author(s) 2021
Keywords: Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Physical Sciences
Environmental Sciences
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Heavy rainfall
Attribution
Typhoon
Climate change
Extreme events
CHI MINH CITY
INTERANNUAL VARIATION
RAPID ATTRIBUTION
HEAVY RAINFALL
FALL RAINFALL
CLIMATE
MODEL
EVENT
PROBABILITY
PATTERNS
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Publication Status: Published
Appears in Collections:Grantham Institute for Climate Change
Faculty of Natural Sciences



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