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Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and vaccine effectiveness associated with Delta variant

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Title: Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and vaccine effectiveness associated with Delta variant
Authors: Elliott, P
Haw, D
Wang, H
Eales, O
Walters, C
Ainslie, K
Atchison, C
Fronterre, C
Diggle, P
Page, A
Trotter, A
Prosolek, S
The COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium, COG-UK
Ashby, D
Donnelly, C
Barclay, W
Taylor, G
Cooke, G
Ward, H
Darzi, A
Riley, S
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: SARS-CoV-2 infections were rising during early summer 2021 in many countries associated with the Delta variant. We assessed RT-PCR swab-positivity in the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study in England. We observed sustained exponential growth with average doubling time (June-July 2021) of 25 days driven by complete replacement of Alpha variant by Delta, and by high prevalence at younger less-vaccinated ages. Unvaccinated people were three times more likely than double-vaccinated people to test positive. However, after adjusting for age and other variables, vaccine effectiveness for double-vaccinated people was estimated at between ~50% and ~60% during this period in England. Increased social mixing in the presence of Delta had the potential to generate sustained growth in infections, even at high levels of vaccination.
Issue Date: 2-Nov-2021
Date of Acceptance: 29-Oct-2021
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/92753
DOI: 10.1126/science.abl9551
ISSN: 0036-8075
Publisher: AAAS
Start Page: 1
End Page: 11
Journal / Book Title: Science
Volume: 374
Issue: 6574
Copyright Statement: © 2021 The Author(s). his work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Sponsor/Funder: National Institute for Health Research
UK Research and Innovation
Funder's Grant Number: RP-2016-07-012
9815274 MC_PC_19025
Keywords: COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium11‡
General Science & Technology
Publication Status: Published
Open Access location: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abl9551?url_ver=Z39.88-2003&rfr_id=ori:rid:crossref.org&rfr_dat=cr_pub%20%200pubmed
Online Publication Date: 2021-11-02
Appears in Collections:Department of Immunology and Inflammation
Department of Metabolism, Digestion and Reproduction
Department of Surgery and Cancer
Department of Infectious Diseases
Faculty of Medicine
Institute of Global Health Innovation
Imperial College London COVID-19
School of Public Health



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