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Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning.

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Title: Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning.
Authors: Cromwell, EA
Osborne, JCP
Unnasch, TR
Basáñez, M-G
Gass, KM
Barbre, KA
Hill, E
Johnson, KB
Donkers, KM
Shirude, S
Schmidt, CA
Adekanmbi, V
Adetokunboh, OO
Afarideh, M
Ahmadpour, E
Ahmed, MB
Akalu, TY
Al-Aly, Z
Alanezi, FM
Alanzi, TM
Alipour, V
Andrei, CL
Ansari, F
Ansha, MG
Anvari, D
Appiah, SCY
Arabloo, J
Arnold, BF
Ausloos, M
Ayanore, MA
Baig, AA
Banach, M
Barac, A
Bärnighausen, TW
Bayati, M
Bhattacharyya, K
Bhutta, ZA
Bibi, S
Bijani, A
Bohlouli, S
Bohluli, M
Brady, OJ
Bragazzi, NL
Butt, ZA
Carvalho, F
Chatterjee, S
Chattu, VK
Chattu, SK
Cormier, NM
Dahlawi, SMA
Damiani, G
Daoud, F
Darwesh, AM
Daryani, A
Deribe, K
Dharmaratne, SD
Diaz, D
Do, HT
El Sayed Zaki, M
El Tantawi, M
Elemineh, DA
Faraj, A
Fasihi Harandi, M
Fatahi, Y
Feigin, VL
Fernandes, E
Foigt, NA
Foroutan, M
Franklin, RC
Gubari, MIM
Guido, D
Guo, Y
Haj-Mirzaian, A
Hamagharib Abdullah, K
Hamidi, S
Herteliu, C
Hidru, HDD
Higazi, TB
Hossain, N
Hosseinzadeh, M
Househ, M
Ilesanmi, OS
Ilic, MD
Ilic, IM
Iqbal, U
Irvani, SSN
Jha, RP
Joukar, F
Jozwiak, JJ
Kabir, Z
Kalankesh, LR
Kalhor, R
Karami Matin, B
Karimi, SE
Kasaeian, A
Kavetskyy, T
Kayode, GA
Kazemi Karyani, A
Kelbore, AG
Keramati, M
Khalilov, R
Khan, EA
Khan, MNN
Khatab, K
Khater, MM
Kianipour, N
Kibret, KT
Kim, YJ
Kosen, S
Krohn, KJ
Kusuma, D
La Vecchia, C
Lansingh, VC
Lee, PH
LeGrand, KE
Li, S
Longbottom, J
Magdy Abd El Razek, H
Magdy Abd El Razek, M
Maleki, A
Mamun, AA
Manafi, A
Manafi, N
Mansournia, MA
Martins-Melo, FR
Mazidi, M
McAlinden, C
Meharie, BG
Mendoza, W
Mengesha, EW
Mengistu, DT
Mereta, ST
Mestrovic, T
Miller, TR
Miri, M
Moghadaszadeh, M
Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A
Mohammadpourhodki, R
Mohammed, S
Mohammed, S
Moradi, M
Moradzadeh, R
Moraga, P
Mosser, JF
Naderi, M
Nagarajan, AJ
Naik, G
Negoi, I
Nguyen, CT
Nguyen, HLT
Nguyen, TH
Nikbakhsh, R
Oancea, B
Olagunju, TO
Olagunju, AT
Omar Bali, A
Onwujekwe, OE
Pana, A
Pourjafar, H
Rahim, F
Rahman, MHU
Rathi, P
Rawaf, S
Rawaf, DL
Rawassizadeh, R
Resnikoff, S
Reta, MA
Rezapour, A
Rubagotti, E
Rubino, S
Sadeghi, E
Saghafipour, A
Sajadi, SM
Samy, AM
Sarmiento-Suárez, R
Sawhney, M
Schipp, MF
Shaheen, AA
Shaikh, MA
Shamsizadeh, M
Sharafi, K
Sheikh, A
Shetty, BSK
Shin, JI
Shivakumar, KM
Simonetti, B
Singh, JA
Skiadaresi, E
Soheili, A
Soltani, S
Spurlock, EE
Sufiyan, MB
Tabuchi, T
Tapak, L
Thompson, RL
Thomson, AJ
Traini, E
Tran, BX
Ullah, I
Ullah, S
Uneke, CJ
Unnikrishnan, B
Uthman, OA
Vinkeles Melchers, NVS
Violante, FS
Wolde, HF
Wonde, TE
Yamada, T
Yaya, S
Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V
Yip, P
Yonemoto, N
Yousof, H-ASA
Yu, C
Yu, Y
Yusefzadeh, H
Zaki, L
Zaman, SB
Zamanian, M
Zhang, Z-J
Zhang, Y
Ziapour, A
Hay, SI
Pigott, DM
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.
Issue Date: Jul-2021
Date of Acceptance: 13-May-2021
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/90836
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824
ISSN: 1935-2727
Publisher: Public Library of Science
Start Page: 1
End Page: 23
Journal / Book Title: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Volume: 15
Issue: 7
Copyright Statement: © 2021 The Author(s). This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.
Keywords: 06 Biological Sciences
11 Medical and Health Sciences
Tropical Medicine
Publication Status: Published
Conference Place: United States
Open Access location: https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824
Online Publication Date: 2021-07-28
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Medicine
School of Public Health



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