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Optimal national prioritization policies for hospital care during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

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Title: Optimal national prioritization policies for hospital care during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
Authors: D’Aeth, J
Ghosal, S
Grimm, F
Haw, D
Koca, E
Lau, K
Moret, S
Rizmie, D
Deeny, S
Perez-Guzman, P
Ferguson, N
Hauck, K
Smith, P
Forchini, G
Wiesemann, W
Miraldo, M
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: In response to unprecedent surges in the demand for hospital care during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, health systems have prioritized COVID patients to life-saving hospital care to the detriment of other patients. In contrast to these ad hoc policies, we develop a linear programming framework to optimally schedule elective procedures and allocate hospital beds among all planned and emergency patients to minimize years of life lost. Leveraging a large dataset of administrative patient medical records, we apply our framework to the National Health System in England and show that an extra 50,750-5,891,608 years of life can be gained in comparison to prioritization policies that reflect those implemented during the pandemic. Significant health gains are observed for neoplasms, diseases of the digestive system, and injuries & poisoning. Our open-source framework provides a computationally efficient approximation of a large-scale discrete optimization problem that can be applied globally to support national-level care prioritization policies.
Issue Date: 13-Aug-2021
Date of Acceptance: 15-Jul-2021
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/90500
DOI: 10.1038/s43588-021-00111-1
ISSN: 2662-8457
Publisher: Nature Research
Start Page: 521
End Page: 531
Journal / Book Title: Nature Computational Science
Volume: 1
Copyright Statement: © The Author(s) 2021. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Sponsor/Funder: Medical Research Council
National Institute for Health Research
Abdul Latif Jameel Foundation
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Funder's Grant Number: MR/R015600/1
NIHR200908
MR/R015600/1
Publication Status: Published
Online Publication Date: 2021-08-13
Appears in Collections:Imperial College Business School
Department of Infectious Diseases
Faculty of Medicine
Imperial College London COVID-19
School of Public Health



This item is licensed under a Creative Commons License Creative Commons