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An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget
| File | Description | Size | Format | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 s43247-020-00064-9.pdf | Published version | 1.16 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
| Title: | An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget |
| Authors: | Matthews, HD Tokarska, KB Rogelj, J Smith, CJ MacDougall, AH Haustein, K Mengis, N Sippel, S Forster, PM Knutti, R |
| Item Type: | Journal Article |
| Abstract: | The remaining carbon budget quantifies the future CO2 emissions to limit global warming below a desired level. Carbon budgets are subject to uncertainty in the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE), as well as to non-CO2 climate influences. Here we estimate the TCRE using observational constraints, and integrate the geophysical and socioeconomic uncertainties affecting the distribution of the remaining carbon budget. We estimate a median TCRE of 0.44 °C and 5–95% range of 0.32–0.62 °C per 1000 GtCO2 emitted. Considering only geophysical uncertainties, our median estimate of the 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget is 440 GtCO2 from 2020 onwards, with a range of 230–670 GtCO2, (for a 67–33% chance of not exceeding the target). Additional socioeconomic uncertainty related to human decisions regarding future non-CO2 emissions scenarios can further shift the median 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget by ±170 GtCO2. |
| Issue Date: | 18-Jan-2021 |
| Date of Acceptance: | 16-Nov-2020 |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/90424 |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s43247-020-00064-9 |
| ISSN: | 2662-4435 |
| Publisher: | Nature Research |
| Start Page: | 1 |
| End Page: | 11 |
| Journal / Book Title: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Volume: | 2 |
| Issue: | 1 |
| Copyright Statement: | © The Author(s) 2021. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
| Sponsor/Funder: | Commission of the European Communities |
| Funder's Grant Number: | 820829 |
| Keywords: | Science & Technology Life Sciences & Biomedicine Physical Sciences Environmental Sciences Geosciences, Multidisciplinary Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Environmental Sciences & Ecology Geology TRANSIENT CLIMATE RESPONSE 1.5 DEGREES-C CUMULATIVE CARBON IMPULSE-RESPONSE EMISSION BUDGETS ZERO EMISSIONS CO2 EMISSIONS TEMPERATURE MODEL OCEAN Science & Technology Life Sciences & Biomedicine Physical Sciences Environmental Sciences Geosciences, Multidisciplinary Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Environmental Sciences & Ecology Geology TRANSIENT CLIMATE RESPONSE 1.5 DEGREES-C CUMULATIVE CARBON IMPULSE-RESPONSE EMISSION BUDGETS ZERO EMISSIONS CO2 EMISSIONS TEMPERATURE MODEL OCEAN |
| Publication Status: | Published |
| Open Access location: | https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00064-9 |
| Article Number: | ARTN 7 |
| Online Publication Date: | 2021-01-18 |
| Appears in Collections: | Grantham Institute for Climate Change |
This item is licensed under a Creative Commons License
