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Using digital surveillance tools for near real-time mapping of the risk of infectious disease spread

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Title: Using digital surveillance tools for near real-time mapping of the risk of infectious disease spread
Authors: Bhatia, S
Lassmann, B
Cohn, E
Desai, AN
Carrion, M
Kraemer, MUG
Herringer, M
Brownstein, J
Madoff, L
Cori, A
Nouvellet, P
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Data from digital disease surveillance tools such as ProMED and HealthMap can complement the field surveillance during ongoing outbreaks. Our aim was to investigate the use of data collected through ProMED and HealthMap in real-time outbreak analysis. We developed a flexible statistical model to quantify spatial heterogeneity in the risk of spread of an outbreak and to forecast short term incidence trends. The model was applied retrospectively to data collected by ProMED and HealthMap during the 2013–2016 West African Ebola epidemic and for comparison, to WHO data. Using ProMED and HealthMap data, the model was able to robustly quantify the risk of disease spread 1–4 weeks in advance and for countries at risk of case importations, quantify where this risk comes from. Our study highlights that ProMED and HealthMap data could be used in real-time to quantify the spatial heterogeneity in risk of spread of an outbreak.
Issue Date: 16-Apr-2021
Date of Acceptance: 16-Mar-2021
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/88650
DOI: 10.1038/s41746-021-00442-3
ISSN: 2398-6352
Publisher: Nature Research
Journal / Book Title: npj Digital Medicine
Volume: 4
Copyright Statement: © The Author(s) 2021. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Sponsor/Funder: United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
Medical Research Council (MRC)
International Society for Infectious Diseases
Funder's Grant Number: AID-OAA-F-16-00115
MR/R015600/1
SBFF-2019-37324
Keywords: Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Health Care Sciences & Services
Medical Informatics
Publication Status: Published
Article Number: ARTN 73
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Medicine
School of Public Health



This item is licensed under a Creative Commons License Creative Commons