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SARIMA-modelled greater severity and mortality during the 2010/11 post-pandemic influenza season compared to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in English hospitals

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Title: SARIMA-modelled greater severity and mortality during the 2010/11 post-pandemic influenza season compared to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in English hospitals
Authors: Lau, K
Dorigatti, I
Miraldo, M
Hauck, K
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Objective The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrates the need for understanding pathways to healthcare demand, morbidity, and mortality of pandemic patients. We estimate H1N1 (1) hospitalization rates, (2) severity rates (length of stay, ventilation, pneumonia, and death) of those hospitalized, (3) mortality rates, and (4) time lags between infections and hospitalizations during the pandemic (June 2009 to March 2010) and post-pandemic influenza season (November 2010 to February 2011) in England. Methods Estimates of H1N1 infections from a dynamic transmission model are combined with hospitalizations and severity using time series econometric analyses of administrative patient-level hospital data. Results Hospitalization rates were 34% higher and severity rates of those hospitalized were 20%–90% higher in the post-pandemic period than the pandemic. Adults (45–64-years-old) had the highest ventilation and pneumonia hospitalization rates. Hospitalizations did not lag infection during the pandemic for the young (<24-years-old) but lagged by one or more weeks for all ages in the post-pandemic period. Discussion The post-pandemic flu season exhibited heightened H1N1 severity, long after the pandemic was declared over. Policymakers should remain vigilant even after pandemics seem to have subsided. Analysis of administrative hospital data and epidemiological modelling estimates can provide valuable insights to inform responses to COVID-19 and future influenza and other disease pandemics.
Issue Date: 1-Apr-2021
Date of Acceptance: 29-Jan-2021
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/87550
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2021.01.070
ISSN: 1201-9712
Publisher: Elsevier
Start Page: 161
End Page: 171
Journal / Book Title: International Journal of Infectious Diseases
Volume: 105
Copyright Statement: © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Sponsor/Funder: Medical Research Council (MRC)
Wellcome Trust
National Institute for Health Research
Abdul Latif Jameel Foundation
Funder's Grant Number: MR/R015600/1
Keywords: H1N1
Time series
0605 Microbiology
1108 Medical Microbiology
1117 Public Health and Health Services
Publication Status: Published
Online Publication Date: 2021-02-03
Appears in Collections:Imperial College Business School
Faculty of Medicine
School of Public Health

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