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Health Impact assessment to predict the impact of tobacco price increases on COPD burden in Italy, England and Sweden

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Title: Health Impact assessment to predict the impact of tobacco price increases on COPD burden in Italy, England and Sweden
Authors: Fuertes, E
Marcon, A
Potts, L
Pesce, G
K Lhachimi, S
Jani, V
Calciano, L
Adamson, A
K Quint, J
Jarvis, D
Janson, C
Accordini, S
Minelli, C
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Raising tobacco prices effectively reduces smoking, the main risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Using the Health Impact Assessment tool “DYNAMO-HIA”, this study quantified the reduction in COPD burden that would occur in Italy, England and Sweden over 40 years if tobacco prices were increased by 5%, 10% and 20% over current local prices, with larger increases considered in secondary analyses. A dynamic Markov-based multi-state simulation modelling approach estimated the effect of changes in smoking prevalence states and probabilities of transitioning between smoking states on future smoking prevalence, COPD burden and life expectancy in each country. Data inputs included demographics, smoking prevalences and behaviour and COPD burden from national data resources, large observational cohorts and datasets within DYNAMO-HIA. In the 20% price increase scenario, the cumulative number of COPD incident cases saved over 40 years was 479,059 and 479,302 in Italy and England (populous countries with higher smoking prevalences) and 83,694 in Sweden (smaller country with lower smoking prevalence). Gains in overall life expectancy ranged from 0.25 to 0.45 years for a 20 year-old. Increasing tobacco prices would reduce COPD burden and increase life expectancy through smoking behavior changes, with modest but important public health benefits observed in all three countries.
Issue Date: 27-Jan-2021
Date of Acceptance: 12-Jan-2021
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/86831
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-81876-3
ISSN: 2045-2322
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
Journal / Book Title: Scientific Reports
Volume: 11
Copyright Statement: © The Author(s) 2021. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Sponsor/Funder: European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme
Commission of the European Communities
Funder's Grant Number: grant agreement No. 633212
Publication Status: Published
Article Number: ARTN 2311
Appears in Collections:Department of Infectious Diseases
National Heart and Lung Institute
Faculty of Medicine

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