Using participatory system dynamics modelling to quantify indirect land use changes of biofuel projects

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Title: Using participatory system dynamics modelling to quantify indirect land use changes of biofuel projects
Authors: Di Lucia, L
Peterson, S
Sevigné-Itoiz, E
Atzori, A
Usai, D
Slade, R
Bauen, A
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: The use of biomass to produce biofuels can lead to both direct and indirect Land Use Change (LUC). While the causes underlying LUCs are complex their quantification is a scientific challenge that hinders decision-making. Here we demonstrate the application of participatory modelling in combination with System Dynamics techniques to the analysis of the land-change dynamics associated with biofuel supply chains. The ambition is to provide decision-makers with useful and credible knowledge of direct and indirect LUCs. We illustrate the application of the approach by applying it to a real‐world project for the production of advanced biofuels in Sardinia (Italy). The results show that the land use displacements vary in intensity and persistence depending on the crop management regime applied and the future development of the market of sheep cheese. The results were considered credible by actors with direct knowledge of the ‘real’ system and useful by decision makers .
Issue Date: 6-Dec-2020
Date of Acceptance: 18-Nov-2020
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/85855
DOI: 10.1080/1747423x.2020.1855265
ISSN: 1747-423X
Publisher: Taylor and Francis
Start Page: 111
End Page: 128
Journal / Book Title: Journal of Land Use Science
Volume: 16
Issue: 1
Copyright Statement: © 2020 Taylor & Francis. This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Land Use Science on 06 December 2020, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1747423X.2020.1855265.
Sponsor/Funder: Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
UK Energy Research Council (UKERC)
Funder's Grant Number: NE/S012834/1
Keywords: Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Agriculture, Multidisciplinary
Ecology
Agriculture
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
ILUC
ILUC PAST
cellulosic ethanol
Sardinia
Giant Reed
validation
credibility
sheep sector
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
RENEWABLE ENERGY
MANAGEMENT
VALIDATION
BIOENERGY
FUTURE
SIMULATION
UNCERTAIN
EMISSIONS
VALIDITY
0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management
1205 Urban and Regional Planning
1604 Human Geography
Publication Status: Published
Online Publication Date: 2020-12-06
Appears in Collections:Centre for Environmental Policy
Faculty of Natural Sciences