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Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission

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Title: Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission
Authors: Nouvellet, P
Bhatia, S
Cori, A
Ainslie, K
Baguelin, M
Bhatt, S
Boonyasiri, A
Brazeau, N
Cattarino, L
Cooper, L
Coupland, H
Cucunuba Perez, Z
Cuomo-Dannenburg, G
Dighe, A
Djaafara, A
Dorigatti, I
Eales, O
Van Elsland, S
NASCIMENTO, F
Fitzjohn, R
Gaythorpe, K
Geidelberg, L
Green, W
Hamlet, A
Hauck, K
Hinsley, W
Imai, N
Jeffrey
Jeffrey, B
Knock, E
Laydon, D
Lees, J
Mangal, T
Mellan, T
Nedjati Gilani, G
Parag, K
Pons Salort, M
Ragonnet-Cronin, M
Riley, S
Unwin, H
Verity, R
Vollmer, M
Volz, E
Walker, P
Walters, C
Wang, H
Watson, O
Whittaker, C
Whittles, L
Xi, X
Ferguson, N
Donnelly, C
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing, and here, we characterise the relationship between transmission and mobility for 52 countries around the world. Transmission significantly decreased with the initial reduction in mobility in 73% of the countries analysed, but we found evidence of decoupling of transmission and mobility following the relaxation of strict control measures for 80% of countries. For the majority of countries, mobility explained a substantial proportion of the variation in transmissibility (median adjusted R-squared: 48%, interquartile range - IQR - across countries [27-77%]). Where a change in the relationship occurred, predictive ability decreased after the relaxation; from a median adjusted R-squared of 74% (IQR across countries [49-91%]) pre-relaxation, to a median adjusted R-squared of 30% (IQR across countries [12-48%]) post-relaxation. In countries with a clear relationship between mobility and transmission both before and after strict control measures were relaxed, mobility was associated with lower transmission rates after control measures were relaxed indicating that the beneficial effects of ongoing social distancing behaviours were substantial.
Issue Date: 17-Feb-2021
Date of Acceptance: 12-Jan-2021
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/85559
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21358-2
ISSN: 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Research
Journal / Book Title: Nature Communications
Volume: 12
Sponsor/Funder: Medical Research Council (MRC)
Medical Research Council (MRC)
National Institute for Health Research
International Society for Infectious Diseases
Medical Research Council
Wellcome Trust
Medical Research Council
Abdul Latif Jameel Foundation
Funder's Grant Number: MR/R015600/1
EP/V520354/1
NIHR200908
SBFF-2019-37324
MR/R015600/1
213494/Z/18/Z
MR/R015600/1
Keywords: Algorithms
COVID-19
Communicable Disease Control
Global Health
Humans
Models, Theoretical
Pandemics
Physical Distancing
Quarantine
SARS-CoV-2
Humans
Communicable Disease Control
Quarantine
Algorithms
Models, Theoretical
Pandemics
Global Health
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Physical Distancing
Publication Status: Published
Article Number: ARTN 1090
Appears in Collections:Department of Infectious Diseases
Faculty of Medicine
School of Public Health



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