Assessing transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England
File(s)
Author(s)
Type
Working Paper
Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, designated a Variant of Concern 202012/01 (VOC) by Public Health England1, originated in the UK in late Summer to early Autumn 20202. Whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequence data collected from community-based diagnostic testing shows an unprecedentedly rapid expansion of the B.1.1.7 lineage during Autumn 2020, suggesting a selective advantage. We find that changes in VOC frequency inferred from genetic data correspond closely to changes inferred by S-gene target failures (SGTF) in community-based diagnostic PCR testing. Analysis of trends in SGTF and non-SGTF case numbers in local areas across England shows that the VOC has higher transmissibility than non-VOC lineages, even if the VOC has a different latent period or generation time. The SGTF data indicate a transient shift in the age composition of reported cases, with a larger share of under 20 year olds among reported VOC than non-VOC cases. Time-varying reproduction numbers for the VOC and cocirculating lineages were estimated using SGTF and genomic data. The best supported models did not indicate a substantial difference in VOC transmissibility among different age groups. There is a consensus among all analyses that the VOC has a substantial transmission advantage with a 50% to 100% higher reproduction number.
Date Issued
2021-05-13
Date Acceptance
2021-03-18
Citation
Nature, 2021, 593, pp.266-269
ISSN
0028-0836
Publisher
Nature Research
Start Page
266
End Page
269
Journal / Book Title
Nature
Volume
593
Is Replaced By
Copyright Statement
© 2020 The Author(s). It is available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license.
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33767447
PII: 10.1038/s41586-021-03470-x
Notes
elocation-id: 2020.12.30.20249034
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
England
Date Publish Online
2021-03-25