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Report 32: Targeting interventions to age groups that sustain COVID-19 transmission in the United States

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Title: Report 32: Targeting interventions to age groups that sustain COVID-19 transmission in the United States
Authors: Monod, M
Blenkinsop, A
Xi, X
Herbert, D
Bershan, S
Tietze, S
Bradley, V
Chen, Y
Coupland, H
Filippi, S
Ish-Horowicz, J
McManus, M
Mellan, T
Gandy, A
Hutchinson, M
Unwin, H
Vollmer, M
Weber, S
Zhu, H
Bezancon, A
Ferguson, N
Mishra, S
Flaxman, S
Bhatt, S
Ratmann, O
Ainslie, K
Baguelin, M
Boonyasiri, A
Boyd, O
Cattarino, L
Cooper, L
Cucunuba Perez, Z
Cuomo-Dannenburg, G
Djaafara, A
Dorigatti, I
Van Elsland, S
Fitzjohn, R
Gaythorpe, K
Geidelberg, L
Green, W
Hamlet, A
Jeffrey, B
Knock, E
Laydon, D
Nedjati Gilani, G
Nouvellet, P
Parag, K
Siveroni, I
Thompson, H
Verity, R
Walters, C
Donnelly, C
Okell, L
Bhatia, S
Brazeau, N
Eales, O
Haw, D
Imai, N
Jauneikaite, E
Lees, J
Mousa, A
Olivera Mesa, D
Skarp, J
Whittles, L
Item Type: Report
Abstract: Following ini􀀂al declines, in mid 2020, a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has occurred in the United States and parts of Europe. Despite the wide implementa􀀂on of non-pharmaceu􀀂cal inter-ven􀀂ons, it is s􀀂ll not known how they are impacted by changing contact pa􀀁erns, age and other demographics. As COVID-19 disease control becomes more localised, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these impact the loosening of interven􀀂ons such as school reopening is crucial. Considering dynamics for the United States, we analyse aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals and link these mechanis􀀂cally to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. In contrast to previous approaches, we link mobility to mortality via age specific contact pa􀀁erns and use this rich rela􀀂onship to reconstruct accurate trans-mission dynamics. Contrary to anecdotal evidence, we find li􀀁le support for age-shi􀀃s in contact and transmission dynamics over 􀀂me. We es􀀂mate that, un􀀂l August, 63.4% [60.9%-65.5%] of SARS-CoV-2 infec􀀂ons in the United States originated from adults aged 20-49, while 1.2% [0.8%-1.8%] originated from children aged 0-9. In areas with con􀀂nued, community-wide transmission, our transmission model predicts that re-opening kindergartens and el-ementary schools could facilitate spread and lead to considerable excess COVID-19 a􀀁ributable deaths over a 90-day period. These findings indicate that targe􀀂ng interven􀀂ons to adults aged 20-49 are an important con-sidera􀀂on in hal􀀂ng resurgent epidemics, and preven􀀂ng COVID-19-a􀀁ributable deaths when kindergartens and elementary schools reopen.
Issue Date: 17-Sep-2020
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/82551
DOI: https://doi.org/10.25561/82551
Start Page: 1
End Page: 32
Copyright Statement: © 2020 The Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
Sponsor/Funder: Medical Research Council (MRC)
Abdul Latif Jameel Foundation
Funder's Grant Number: MR/R015600/1
Keywords: COVID-19
Coronavirus
USA
COVID19
Publication Status: Published
Appears in Collections:Imperial College London COVID-19
School of Public Health



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