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The potential public health consequences of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa.

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Title: The potential public health consequences of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa.
Authors: Sherrard-Smith, E
Hogan, AB
Hamlet, A
Watson, OJ
Whittaker, C
Winskill, P
Ali, F
Mohammad, AB
Uhomoibhi, P
Maikore, I
Ogbulafor, N
Nikau, J
Kont, MD
Challenger, JD
Verity, R
Lambert, B
Cairns, M
Rao, B
Baguelin, M
Whittles, LK
Lees, JA
Bhatia, S
Knock, ES
Okell, L
Slater, HC
Ghani, AC
Walker, PGT
Okoko, OO
Churcher, TS
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: The burden of malaria is heavily concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where cases and deaths associated with COVID-19 are rising1. In response, countries are implementing societal measures aimed at curtailing transmission of SARS-CoV-22,3. Despite these measures, the COVID-19 epidemic could still result in millions of deaths as local health facilities become overwhelmed4. Advances in malaria control this century have been largely due to distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs)5, with many SSA countries having planned campaigns for 2020. In the present study, we use COVID-19 and malaria transmission models to estimate the impact of disruption of malaria prevention activities and other core health services under four different COVID-19 epidemic scenarios. If activities are halted, the malaria burden in 2020 could be more than double that of 2019. In Nigeria alone, reducing case management for 6 months and delaying LLIN campaigns could result in 81,000 (44,000-119,000) additional deaths. Mitigating these negative impacts is achievable, and LLIN distributions in particular should be prioritized alongside access to antimalarial treatments to prevent substantial malaria epidemics.
Issue Date: 7-Aug-2020
Date of Acceptance: 23-Jul-2020
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/81652
DOI: 10.1038/s41591-020-1025-y
ISSN: 1078-8956
Publisher: Nature Research
Start Page: 1411
End Page: 1416
Journal / Book Title: Nature Medicine
Volume: 26
Copyright Statement: © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature America, Inc. 2020. The final publication is available at Springer via https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-1025-y
Sponsor/Funder: Imperial College LOndon
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Wellcome Trust
Funder's Grant Number: OPP1068440
Keywords: Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Biochemistry & Molecular Biology
Cell Biology
Medicine, Research & Experimental
Research & Experimental Medicine
11 Medical and Health Sciences
Publication Status: Published
Conference Place: United States
Online Publication Date: 2020-08-07
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Medicine
Imperial College London COVID-19
School of Public Health