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Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, TB and malaria in low- and middle-income countries: a modelling study
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1-s2.0-S2214109X20302886-main.pdf | Published version | 662.6 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
SI_v5_resub_clean.docx | Supporting information | 1.58 MB | Microsoft Word | View/Open |
Title: | Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, TB and malaria in low- and middle-income countries: a modelling study |
Authors: | Hogan, A Jewell, B Sherrard-Smith, E Watson, O Whittaker, C Hamlet, A Smith, J Winskill, P Verity, R Baguelin, M Lees, J Whittles, L Ainslie, K Bhatt, S Boonyasiri, A Brazeau, N Cattarino, L Cooper, L Coupland, H Cuomo-Dannenburg, G Dighe, A Djaafara, A Donnelly, C Eaton, J Van Elsland, S Fitzjohn, R Fu, H Gaythorpe, K Green, W Haw, D Hayes, S Hinsley, W Imai, N Laydon, D Mangal, T Mellan, T Mishra, S Parag, K Thompson, H Unwin, H Vollmer, M Walters, C Wang, H Ferguson, N Okell, L Churcher, T Arinaminpathy, N Ghani, A Walker, P Hallett, T |
Item Type: | Journal Article |
Abstract: | Background: COVID-19 has the potential to cause substantial disruptions to health services, including by cases overburdening the health system or response measures limiting usual programmatic activities. We aimed to quantify the extent to which disruptions in services for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), tuberculosis (TB) and malaria in low- and middle-income countries with high burdens of those disease could lead to additional loss of life. Methods: We constructed plausible scenarios for the disruptions that could be incurred during the COVID-19 pandemic and used established transmission models for each disease to estimate the additional impact on health that could be caused in selected settings. Findings: In high burden settings, HIV-, TB- and malaria-related deaths over five years may increase by up to 10%, 20% and 36%, respectively, compared to if there were no COVID-19 pandemic. We estimate the greatest impact on HIV to be from interruption to antiretroviral therapy, which may occur during a period of high health system demand. For TB, we estimate the greatest impact is from reductions in timely diagnosis and treatment of new cases, which may result from any prolonged period of COVID-19 suppression interventions. We estimate that the greatest impact on malaria burden could come from interruption of planned net campaigns. These disruptions could lead to loss of life-years over five years that is of the same order of magnitude as the direct impact from COVID-19 in places with a high burden of malaria and large HIV/TB epidemics. Interpretation: Maintaining the most critical prevention activities and healthcare services for HIV, TB and malaria could significantly reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, The Wellcome Trust, DFID, MRC |
Issue Date: | 1-Sep-2020 |
Date of Acceptance: | 18-Jun-2020 |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/80149 |
DOI: | 10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30288-6 |
ISSN: | 2214-109X |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Start Page: | e1132 |
End Page: | e1141 |
Journal / Book Title: | The Lancet Global Health |
Volume: | 8 |
Issue: | 9 |
Copyright Statement: | © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) |
Sponsor/Funder: | Medical Research Council (MRC) Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Wellcome Trust Medical Research Council (MRC) Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust- BRC Funding The Academy of Medical Sciences Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation National Institute for Health Research Imperial College LOndon Medical Research Council The Royal Society Wellcome Trust |
Funder's Grant Number: | MR/R015600/1 OPP1194416 221350/Z/20/Z MR/K010174/1B 1606H5002/JH6 RDA02 SBF004/1080 CRR00280 NIHR200908 MR/R015600/1 DH140134 200222/B/15/Z |
Keywords: | Coronavirus Infections Developing Countries HIV Infections Health Services Accessibility Humans Malaria Models, Theoretical Pandemics Pneumonia, Viral Tuberculosis Humans Tuberculosis Pneumonia, Viral Coronavirus Infections HIV Infections Malaria Models, Theoretical Developing Countries Health Services Accessibility Pandemics 0605 Microbiology 1117 Public Health and Health Services |
Publication Status: | Published |
Online Publication Date: | 2020-07-13 |
Appears in Collections: | Department of Infectious Diseases National Heart and Lung Institute Faculty of Medicine Imperial College London COVID-19 School of Public Health |
This item is licensed under a Creative Commons License